Thursday, October 17, 2024

Why America Is Buying Up The Premier League – And What It Means For The Future Of ‘Soccer’



BY KIERAN MAGUIRE AND CHRISTINA PHILIPPOU

When the Premier League broke away from the rest of English football in 1992, its 22 clubs generated £205 million in its debut season, and the average player earned £2,050 a week. Thirty years later, despite having two fewer clubs, the league’s revenue had increased by 2,850% to £6.1 billion and the average player earned £93,000 a week.

At the heart of this extraordinary growth is an American revolution. In the Premier League’s inaugural season, football was still in recovery from the horrors of the stadium disasters at Hillsborough and Heysel. Owners tended to be from the local area and with a business background. The only foreign owner was Sam Hamman at Wimbledon, a Lebanese millionaire who bought the club on a whim having reportedly been much more interested in tennis. The season ended with Manchester United (under Alex Ferguson) winning the English game’s top league for the first time in 26 years.

Now, if the Texas-based Friedkin Group’s recent deal to buy Everton goes through, 11 of the 20 Premier League clubs will be controlled or part-owned by American investors. The US – long seen as football’s final frontier when it comes to the men’s game – suddenly can’t get enough of English “soccer”.

Four of the Premier League’s “big six” are American-owned – Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea – while a fifth, Manchester City, has a significant US minority shareholding. Aston Villa, Fulham, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Ipswich Town also have varying degrees of American ownership.

And it’s not even just the glamour clubs at the top of the tree. American investment has also been significant lower down the football pyramid, led by the high-profile acquisition of then non-league Wrexham by Hollywood actors Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenny, and Birmingham City’s purchase by US investors including seven-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady. American investment in football has reached places as geographically diverse as Carlisle and Crawley in England, and Aberdeen and Edinburgh in Scotland.

So why the American obsession with English football? And how real are concerns that these US owners could collude to “Americanise” the traditions of the Premier League – whether by reducing the risk of relegation, introducing some form of “draft pick” system, or moving matches and even clubs to other cities?

The Premier League’s first US owner

Manchester United was the first Premier League club to come under American ownership – after a row about a horse.

In 2005, United was owned by a variety of investors including Irish businessmen and racehorse owners John Magnier and J.P. McManus. Their erstwhile friend Ferguson, the United manager, thought he co-owned the champion racehorse Rock of Gibraltar with them – a stallion worth millions in stud rights. They disagreed – and their bitter dispute was such that Magnier and McManus decided to sell their shares in the football club.

The Miami-based Glazer family – already involved in sport as owners of NFL franchise the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – had already been buying up small tranches of shares in United, but the sudden availability of the Irish shares allowed Malcolm Glazer to acquire a controlling stake for £790 million (around £1.5 billion at today’s prices).

The fact Glazer did not actually have sufficient funds to pay for these shares was a solvable problem. In the some-might-say commercially naive world of top-flight English football before the Premier League, Manchester United was a club without debt, paying its way without leveraging its position as one of the world’s most famous football clubs. Glazer saw the opportunity this presented and arranged a leveraged buy-out (LBO), whereby the football club borrowed more than £600 million secured on its own assets to, in effect, “buy itself” in 2005.

Despite the need to meet the high interest costs to fund the LBO, United continued winning trophies under Ferguson – including three Premier League titles in a row in 2007, 2008 and 2009, as well as a Champions League victory in 2008. Amid this success, the club felt that ticket prices were too low and set about increasing them, with matchday revenue increasing from £66 million in 2004/05 to over £101 million by 2007/08.

Commercial income was another area the Glazers were keen to increase. United set up offices in London and adopted a global approach to finding new official branding deals ranging from snacks to tractor and tyre suppliers – doubling revenues from this income source too.

But in this new, more aggressive world of “sweating the asset”, the debts lingered – and most United fans remained deeply suspicious of their American owners. (Following their father’s death in 2014, the club was co-owned by his six children, with brothers Avram and Joel Glazer becoming co-chairmen.)

Today, despite its partial listing on the New York Stock Exchange and the February 2024 sale of 27.7% of the club to British billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe for a reputed £1.25 billion, United still has borrowings of more than £546 million, having paid cumulative interest costs of £969 million since the takeover in 2005. But with the club now valued at US$6.55 billion (around £5bn), it represents a very smart investment for the Glazer family.

Indeed, while the prices being paid for football clubs across Europe have reached record levels, they are still seen as cheap investments compared with US sports’ leading franchises. Forbes’s annual list of the world’s most valuable sports teams has American football (NFL), baseball (MLB) and basketball (NBA) teams occupying the top ten positions, with only three Premier League clubs – Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City – in the top 50.

With NFL teams having an average franchise value of US$5.1 billion and NBA $3.9 billion, many English football clubs still look like a bargain from the other side of the pond.

The risk of relegation

The latest to join this US bandwagon, the Friedkin Group – a Texas-based portfolio of companies run by American businessman and film producer Dan Friedkin – is reported to have offered £400m to buy Everton, despite the club’s poor financial state.

“The Toffees” have been hit by loss of sponsorships as well as two sets of points deductions for breaching the Premier League’s financial rules, leading to revenue losses from lower league positions. While the new stadium being built at Liverpool’s Bramley-Moore dock has been yet another financial constraint, it will at least increase matchday income from the start of next season.

A wider reason for the relative bargain in valuations of European football clubs is the risk of relegation – something that is not part of the closed leagues of most US sports. While the threat of relegation (and promise of promotion) has always been an integral part of English and European football, the jeopardy this brings for supporters – and a club’s finances – does not exist in the NFL, NBA, Major League Soccer and similar competitions.

The Premier League, with its three relegation spots at the end of each season, has featured 51 different clubs since it launched in 1992. Only six clubs – Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool and Everton – have been ever present, with Arsenal now approaching 100 years of consecutive top-flight football.

Other Premier League clubs have experienced the dramatic cost-benefit of relegation and promotion. Oldham Athletic, who were in the Premier League for its first two seasons, now languish in the fifth tier of the game, outside the English Football League (EFL). In contrast, Luton Town, who were in the fifth tier as recently as 2014, were promoted to the Premier League in 2023 – only to be relegated at the end of last season.

While it is difficult to compare football clubs with basketball and American football teams, the financial difference between having an open league, with relegation, and a closed league becomes apparent when you look at women’s football on both sides of the Atlantic.

Angel City, a women’s soccer team based in Los Angeles, only entered the National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) in 2022 and is yet to win an NWSL trophy. But last month, the club was sold for US$250 million (£188m) to Disney’s CEO Bob Iger and TV journalist Willow Bay – the most expensive takeover in the history of women’s professional sport.

In comparison, Chelsea – seven-time winners of the English Women’s Super League and one of the most successful sides in Europe – valued its women’s team at £150 million ($US196m) earlier this summer. While there are a number of factors to this price differential, the confidence that Angel City will always be a member of the big league of US soccer clubs – and share very equally in its revenue – will have made its new owners very confident in the long-term soundness of their deal.

A further attraction for American investors is the potential to enter two markets – one mature (men’s football) and one effectively a start-up (the women’s game) – in a single purchase. In the US, the top men’s and women’s clubs are completely separate. But in Europe, most top-flight women’s teams are affiliated to men’s clubs – with the exception of eight-time Women’s Champions League winners Olympique Lyonnais Feminin, which split from the French men’s club when Korean-American businesswoman Michele Kang bought a majority stake in the women’s team in February 2024).

While interest in, and hence value of, the WSL is now growing fast, the women’s game in England is dwarfed by viewer ratings for the Premier League – the most watched sporting league in the world, viewed by an estimated 1.87 billion people every week across 189 countries.

These figures dwarf even the NFL which, while currently still the most valuable of all sporting leagues in terms of its broadcasting deals, must be looking at the growth of the Premier League with some jealousy. This may explain why some US franchise owners, such as Stan Kroenke, the Glazer family, Fenway Sports Group and Billy Foley, have subsequently purchased Premier League football clubs.

Ironically, for many spectators around the world, it is the intensity and competitiveness of most Premier League matches – brought on in part by the threat of relegation and prize of European qualification – that makes it so captivating. However, billionaire investors like guaranteed numbers and dislike risk – especially the degree of financial risk that exists in the Premier League and English Football League.

European not-so-Super League

In April 2021, 12 leading European clubs (six from England plus three each from Spain and Italy) announced the creation of the European Super League (ESL). This new mid-week competition was to be a high-revenue generating, closed competition with (eventually) 15 permanent teams and five annual additions qualifying from Europe. According to one of the driving forces behind the plan, Manchester United co-chairman Joel Glazer:

By bringing together the world’s greatest clubs and players to play each other throughout the season, the Super League will open a new chapter for European football, ensuring world-class competition and facilities, and increased financial support for the wider football pyramid.

The problem facing the Premier League’s “big six” clubs – and their ambitious owners – is there are currently only four slots available to play in the Champions League. So, their thinking went, why not take away the risk of not qualifying? However, the proposal was swiftly condemned by fans around Europe, together with football’s governing bodies and leagues – all of whom saw the ESL proposal as a threat to the quality and integrity of their domestic leagues. Following some large fan protests, including at Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge, Manchester City was the first club to withdraw – followed, within a couple of days, by the rest of the English clubs.

Under the terms of the ESL proposals, founding member clubs would have been guaranteed participation in the competition forever. Guaranteed participation means guaranteed revenues. The current financial gap between the “big six” and the other members of the Premier League, which in 2022/23 averaged £396 million, would have widened rapidly.

For example, these clubs would have been able to sell the broadcast rights for some of their ESL home fixtures direct to fans, instead of via a broadcaster. All of a sudden, that database of fans who have downloaded the official club app, or are on a mailing list, becomes far more valuable. These are the people most willing to watch their favourite team on a pay-per-view basis, further increasing revenues.

At the same time, a planned ESL wage cap would have stopped players taking all these increased revenues in the form of higher wages, allowing these clubs to become more profitable and their ownership even more lucrative.

American-owned Manchester United and Liverpool had previously tried to enhance the value of their investments during the COVID lockdowns era via ProjectBig Picture – proposals to reduce the size of the Premier League and scrap one of the two domestic cup competitions, thus freeing up time for the bigger clubs to arrange more lucrative tours and European matches against high-profile opposition.

Most importantly, Project Big Picture would have resulted in changing the governance of the domestic game. Under its proposals, the “big six” clubs would have enjoyed enhanced voting rights, and therefore been able to significantly influence how the domestic game was governed.

Any attempt to increase the concentration of power raises concerns of lower competitive balance, whereby fewer teams are in the running to win the title and fewer games are meaningful. This is a problem facing some other major European football leagues including France’s Ligue 1, where interest among broadcasters has dwindled amid the perceived dominance of Paris St-Germain.

So while to date, American-led attempts to change the structure of the Premier League have been foiled, it’s unlikely such ideas have gone away for good. The near-universal fear of fans – even those who welcome an injection of extra cash from a new billionaire owner – is that the spectacle of the league will only be diminished if such plans ever succeed.

And there is evidence from the women’s game that the US closed league format is coming under more pressure from football’s global forces. The NWSL recently announced it is removing the draft system that is designed (as with the NFL and NBA) to build in jeopardy and competitive balance when there is no risk of relegation.

Top US women’s football clubs are losing some of their leading players to other leagues, in part because European clubs are not bound by the same artificial rules of employment. In a truly global professional sport such as football, international competition will always tend to destabilise closed leagues.

Why do they keep buying these clubs?

Does this mean that American and other wealthy owners of Premier League clubs seeking to reduce their risks are ultimately fighting a losing battle? And if so, given the potential risks involved in owning a football club – both financial and even personal – why do they keep buying them?

The motivations are part-financial, part technological and, as has always been the case with sports ownership, part-vanity.

The American economy has grown far faster than that of the EU or UK in recent years. Consequently, there are many beneficiaries of this growth who have surplus cash, and here football becomes an attractive proposition. In fact, football clubs are more resilient to recessions than other industries, holding their value better as they are effectively monopoly suppliers for their fans who have brand loyalty that exists in few other industries.

From 1993 to 2018, a period during which the UK economy more than doubled, the total value of Premier League clubs grew 30 times larger. And many fans are tied to supporting one club, helping to make the biggest clubs more resilient to economic changes than other industries. While football, like many parts of the entertainment industry, was hit by lockdown during Covid, no clubs went out of business, despite the challenges of matches being played in empty stadiums.

Added to this, the exchange rates for US dollars have been very favourable until recently, making US investments in the UK and Europe cheaper for American investors.

So, while Manchester United fans would argue that the Glazer family have not been good for the club, United has been good for the Glazers. And Fenway Sports Group (FSG), who bought Liverpool for £300 million in 2010, have recouped almost all of that money in smaller share sales while remaining majority owners of Liverpool.

Despite this, the £2.5 billion price paid for Chelsea by the US Clearlake-Todd Boehly consortium in May 2022 took markets by surprise.

The sale – which came after the UK government froze the assets of the club’s Russian oligarch owner, Roman Abramovich, following the invasion of Ukraine – went through less than a year after Newcastle United had been sold by Sports Direct founder Mike Ashley to the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund for £305 million – approximately twice that club’s annual revenues. Yet Clearlake-Boehly were willing to pay over five times Chelsea’s annual revenues to acquire the club, even though it was in a precarious financial position.

Clearlake is a private equity group whose main aim is to make profits for their investors. But unlike most such investors, who tend to focus on cost-cutting, the Chelsea ownership came in with a high-spending strategy using new financial structuring ideas, such as offering longer player contracts to avoid falling foul of football’s profitability and sustainability rules (although this loophole has since been closed with Uefa, European football’s governing body, limiting contract lengths for financial regulation purposes to five years).

Chelsea’s location in the one of the most expensive areas of London, combined with its on-field success under Abramovich, all added to the attraction, of course. But there are other reasons why Clearlake, along with billionaire businessman Boehly, were willing to stump up so much for the club.

From Hollywood to the metaverse

While some British football fans may have viewed the Ted Lasso TV show as an enjoyable if slightly twee fictional account of American involvement in English soccer, it has enhanced the attraction of the sport in the US. So too Welcome To Wrexham – the fly-on-the-wall series covering the (to date) two promotions of Wales’s oldest football club under the unlikely Hollywood stewardship of Reynolds and McElhenney.

The growth in US interest in English football is reflected in the record-breaking Premier League media rights deal in 2022, with NBC Sports reportedly paying $2.7 billion (£2.06bn) for its latest six-year deal.

But as well as football offering one of increasingly few “live shared TV experiences” that carry lucrative advertising slots, there may also be more opportunity for more behind-the-scenes coverage of the Premier League – as has long been seen in US coverage of NBA games, for example, where players are interviewed in the locker room straight after games.

According to Manchester United’s latest annual report, the club now has a “global community of 1.1 billion fans and followers”. Such numbers mean its owners, and many others, are bullish about the potential of the metaverse in terms of offering a matchday experience that could be similar to attending a match, without physically travelling to Manchester.

Their neighbours Manchester City, part-owned by American private equity company Silverlake, broke new (virtual) ground by signing a metaverse deal with Sony in 2022. Virtual reality could give fans around the world the feeling of attending a live match, sitting next to their friends and singing along with the rest of the crowd (for a pay-per-view fee).

Some investors are even confident that advancements in Abba-style avatar technology could one day allow fans to watch live 3D simulations of Premier League matches in stadiums all over the world. Having first-mover advantage by being in the elite club of owners who can make use of such technology could prove ever more rewarding.

More immediately, there are some indications that competitive matches involving England’s top men’s football teams could soon take place in US or other venues. Boehly, Chelsea’s co-owner, has already suggested adopting some US sports staples such as an All-Star match to further boost revenues. Indeed, back in 2008, the Premier League tentatively discussed a “39th game” taking place overseas, but that idea was quickly shelved.

The American owners of Birmingham City were keen to play this season’s EFL League One match against Wrexham in the US, but again this proposal did not get far. Liverpool’s chairman Tom Werner says he is determined to see matches take place overseas, and recent changes to world governing body Fifa’s rulebook could make it easier for this proposal to succeed.

The potential benefits of hosting games overseas include higher matchday revenues, increased brand awareness, and enhanced broadcast rights. While there is likely to be significant opposition from local fans, at least American owners know they would not face the same hostility about rising matchday prices in the US as they have encountered in England.

When the Argentinian legend Lionel Messi signed for new MLS franchise Inter Miami in 2023, season ticket prices nearly doubled on his account. And while there is vocal opposition to higher ticket prices in England, this is not borne out in terms of lower attendances for matches against high-calibre opposition – as evidenced by Aston Villa charging up to £97 for last week’s Champions League meeting with Bayern Munich.

Villa’s director of operations, Chris Heck, defended the prices by saying that difficult decisions had to be made if the club was to be competitive.

For much of the 2010s, with broadcast revenues increasing rapidly, many Premier League owners made little effort to stoke hostilities with their loyal fan bases by putting up ticket prices. Indeed, Manchester United generated little more from matchday income in the 2021-22 season, as football emerged from the pandemic, than the club had in 2010-11 (see chart above).

However, this uneasy truce between fans and owners has ceased. The relative flatlining of broadcast revenues since 2017, along with cost control rules that are starting to affect clubs’ ability to spend money on player signings and wages, has changed club appetites for dampened ticket prices. This has resulted in noticeable rises in individual ticket and season ticket prices by some clubs.

However, season ticket and other local “legacy” fans generate little money compared with the more lucrative overseas and tourist fans. They may only watch their favourite team live once a season, but when they visit, they are far more likely not only to pay higher matchday prices, but to spend more on merchandise, catering and other offerings from the club.

Today’s breed of commercially aware, profit-seeking US Premier League owners – pioneered by the Glazer family, who saw that “sweating the asset” meant more than watching football players sprinting hard – understand there is a lot more value to come from English football teams. The clubs’ loyal local supporters may not like it, but English football’s American-led revolution is not done yet.

READ ORIGINAL STORY HERE

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

4 Ways AI Can Be Used And Abused In The 2024 Election, From Deepfakes To Foreign Interference

Special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into the 2016 U.S. election concluded that Russia had worked to get President Donald Trump elected. Jonathan Ernst/Pool via AP

BY BARBARA A. TRISH
PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
GRINNELL COLLEGE

The American public is on alert about artificial intelligence and the 2024 election.

A September 2024 poll by the Pew Research Center found that well over half of Americans worry that artificial intelligence – or AI, computer technology mimicking the processes and products of human intelligence – will be used to generate and spread false and misleading information in the campaign.

My academic research on AI may help quell some concerns. While this innovative technology certainly has the potential to manipulate voters or spread lies at scale, most uses of AI in the current election cycle are, so far, not novel at all.

I’ve identified four roles AI is playing or could play in the 2024 campaign – all arguably updated versions of familiar election activities.

1. Voter information

The 2022 launch of ChatGPT brought the promise and peril of generative AI into public consciousness. This technology is called “generative” because it produces text responses to user prompts: It can write poetry, answer history questions – and provide information about the 2024 election.

Rather than search Google for voting information, people may instead ask generative AI a question. “How much has inflation changed since 2020?” for example. Or, “Who’s running for U.S. Senate in Texas?”

Some generative AI platforms such as Google’s AI chatbot Gemini, decline to answer questions about candidates and voting. Some, such as Facebook’s AI tool Llama, respond – and respond accurately.

But generative AI can also produce misinformation. In the most extreme cases, AI can have “hallucinations,” offering up wildly inaccurate results.

A CBS news account from June 2024 reported that ChatGPT had given incorrect or incomplete responses to some prompts asking how to vote in battleground states. And ChatGPT didn’t consistently follow the policy of its owner, OpenAI, and refer users to CanIVote.org, a respected site for voting information.

As with the web, people should verify the results of AI searches. And beware: Google’s Gemini now automatically returns answers to Google search queries at the top of every results page. You might inadvertently stumble into AI tools when you think you’re searching the internet.

2. Deepfakes

Deepfakes are fabricated images, audio and video produced by generative AI and designed to replicate reality. Essentially, these are highly convincing versions of what are now called “cheapfakes” – altered images made using basic tools such as Photoshop and video-editing software.

The potential of deepfakes to deceive voters became clear when an AI-generated robocall impersonating Joe Biden before the January 2024 New Hampshire primary advised Democrats to save their votes for November.

After that, the Federal Communication Commission ruled that AI-generated robocalls are subject to the same regulations as all robocalls. They cannot be auto-dialed or delivered to cellphones or landlines without prior consent.

The agency also slapped a US$6 million fine on the consultant who created the fake Biden call – but not for tricking voters. He was fined for transmitting inaccurate caller-ID information.

While synthetic media can be used to spread disinformation, deepfakes are now part of the creative toolbox of political advertisers.

One early deepfake aimed more at persuasion than overt deception was an AI-generated ad from a 2022 mayoral race contest portraying the then-incumbent mayor of Shreveport, Louisiana, as a failing student summoned to the principal’s office.

The ad included a quick disclaimer that it was a deepfake, a warning not required by the federal government, but it was easy to miss.

Wired magazine’s AI Elections Project, which is tracking uses of AI in the 2024 cycle, shows that deepfakes haven’t overwhelmed the ads voters see. But they have been used by candidates across the political spectrum, up and down the ballot, for many purposes – including deception.

Former President Donald Trump hints at a Democratic deepfake when he questions the crowd size at Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign events. In lobbing such allegations, Trump is attempting to reap the “liar’s dividend” – the opportunity to plant the idea that truthful content is fake.

Discrediting a political opponent this way is nothing new. Trump has been claiming that the truth is really just “fake news” since at least the “birther” conspiracy of 2008, when he helped to spread rumors that presidential candidate Barack Obama’s birth certificate was fake.

3. Strategic distraction

Some are concerned that AI might be used by election deniers in this cycle to distract election administrators by burying them in frivolous public records requests.

For example, the group True the Vote has lodged hundreds of thousands of voter challenges over the past decade working with just volunteers and a web-based app. Imagine its reach if armed with AI to automate their work.

Such widespread, rapid-fire challenges to the voter rolls could divert election administrators from other critical tasks, disenfranchise legitimate voters and disrupt the election.

As of now, there’s no evidence that this is happening.

4. Foreign election interference

Confirmed Russian interference in the 2016 election underscored that the threat of foreign meddling in U.S. politics, whether by Russia or another country invested in discrediting Western democracy, remains a pressing concern.

In July, the Department of Justice seized two domain names and searched close to 1,000 accounts that Russian actors had used for what it called a “social media bot farm,” similar to those Russia used to influence the opinions of hundreds of millions of Facebook users in the 2020 campaign. Artificial intelligence could give these efforts a real boost.

There’s also evidence that China is using AI this cycle to spread malicious information about the U.S. One such social media post transcribed a Biden speech inaccurately to suggest he made sexual references.

AI may help election interferers do their dirty work, but new technology is hardly necessary for foreign meddling in U.S. politics.

In 1940, the United Kingdom – an American ally – was so focused on getting the U.S. to enter World War II that British intelligence officers worked to help congressional candidates committed to intervention and to discredit isolationists.

One target was the prominent Republican isolationist U.S. Rep. Hamilton Fish. Circulating a photo of Fish and the leader of an American pro-Nazi group taken out of context, the British sought to falsely paint Fish as a supporter of Nazi elements abroad and in the U.S.
Can AI be controlled?

Acknowledging that it doesn’t take new technology to do harm, bad actors can leverage the efficiencies embedded in AI to create a formidable challenge to election operations and integrity.

Federal efforts to regulate AI’s use in electoral politics face the same uphill battle as most proposals to regulate political campaigns. States have been more active: 19 now ban or restrict deepfakes in political campaigns.

Some platforms engage in light self-moderation. Google’s Gemini responds to prompts asking for basic election information by saying, “I can’t help with responses on elections and political figures right now.”

Campaign professionals may employ a little self-regulation, too. Several speakers at a May 2024 conference on campaign tech expressed concern about pushback from voters if they learn that a campaign is using AI technology. In this sense, the public concern over AI might be productive, creating a guardrail of sorts.

But the flip side of that public concern – what Stanford University’s Nate Persily calls “AI panic” – is that it can further erode trust in elections.

READ ORIGINAL STORY HERE

Presidential Elections Provide Opportunities To Teach About Power, Proportions And Percentages


BY LIZA BONDURAT
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF SECONDARY
MATH EDUCATION, MISSISSIPPI STATE
UNIVERSITY

AND

STEPHANIE SOMMERSILLE
INDEPENDENT RESEARCHER

To American voters, the process of electing a president and other officials may be difficult to explain and understand. For America’s math teachers, the system represents a gold mine for real-life lessons on ratios, statistics and data.

And by basing the lessons on elections, teachers can help put students on the path to becoming informed and engaged voters later in life, according to a 2020 survey of 2,232 young adults ages 18-21.

Americans don’t vote directly for the president. Instead, a group of electors vote for the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state. In most states, whoever wins the most votes wins all the state’s electors, or “electoral votes.”

Not all states have the same number of electors. Each state starts with two electoral votes, based on the two U.S. senators in each state. States receive additional electors based on the number of representatives they have in the House of Representatives, which depends on a state’s population. The number of representatives in the House, however, has been set at 435 since 1929, despite a huge and varied increase in the population. This means the number of people represented by each member of the U.S. House – the ratio of people to representative – varies considerably, as shown in a table from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Armed with this background, math teachers can use the census data on population and ratios to teach students the following math – and voting – topics.

Topic 1: Ratio

To calculate a state’s representative ratio, the number of people for every one representative, divide the population by the number of the state’s representatives in the U.S. House. In 2020, for example, Montana had two congressional representatives and a population of 1,085,407. The representative ratio was 542,704:1 – 1,085,407 divided by 2 – or 542,704 residents for each representative.

Topic 2: Minimum and maximum

In any set of numbers, the minimum is the smallest number in the set and the maximum is the largest number. For example, using the representative ratios from the 2020 census data, Montana’s ratio of 542,704:1 is the smallest – the minimum – and Delaware’s ratio of 990,837:1 is the largest, or the maximum.

Topic 3: The shape, center and spread of data

Shape means how data, such as the ratios of residents to representatives, looks on a chart or graph. Teachers can use a histogram, a kind of graph used to illustrate how data is distributed: evenly, skewed to one side, or with some numbers as outliers, at a distance from the other numbers.

The ratios can also be used to explain how to find the “center” of data, its mean or median. The mean is the average, found by adding all the numbers in the set and dividing by how many there are. For example, adding the ratios for all the states and dividing by 50. The median is the middle number when all numbers are placed in order from minimum to maximum. Simple spreadsheet formulas are available online to help students find both.

The “spread” of a set of numbers tells how much the numbers are different from the center. One measure of spread is called the range, which is the difference between the maximum and the minimum. For example, the range in representative ratios among the states is 448,133: the maximum, Delaware’s 990,837, minus the minimum, Montana’s 542,704.

When students understand how ratios – and elections – work, teachers can ask questions such as, “Montana has fewer people per representative than Delaware. Where would your vote count more?” Answer: Montana, because fewer people per representative means each vote counts more.

Topic 4: Gerrymandering

Each state is divided into districts; residents of each district vote for their state and federal representatives. Gerrymandering occurs when the borders of voting districts are drawn to favor one party at the expense of another. The political party in power often draws these district lines to make it easier for that party to win in the future.

Imagine a state has 10 representatives, and Party X gets 60% of the votes. With 60% of the votes, it seems fair that Party X should get 6 of the state’s 10 seats for representatives.

There is no rule that says the percentage of votes cast for a party in a state has to line up with the number of seats the party wins. And Party X wants more. To keep control of as many seats as possible, the politicians in Party X would like to manipulate – or gerrymander – each of 10 districts to make sure it would win 60% of the vote in each. With a majority in each district, Party X would win all 10 seats. Gerrymandering to this extreme is not always possible because districts must consist of adjoining areas, and voters who favor one party might not live in areas that can be easily connected.

Lessons on gerrymandering can vary by grade level. For example, elementary students can get hands-on experience manipulating borders with the Julia Robinson Mathematics Festival “puzzles” tool. The puzzle, which can be tied to lessons about shapes, percents and area, allows children to change boundaries on a graph to increase or decrease the number of yellow or green squares – representing voters – in each “district.” There are fewer green squares than yellow squares in each puzzle. Students win when they successfully gerrymander, changing the borders so the green voters are in the majority in most, or all, of the districts.

High school students, who already understand the basics of gerrymandering, can use a tool called Districtr to draw real voting districts. The site uses actual data about where voters live and which political party won in which area. Using this tool, students cannot only try to gerrymander districts, they can also try to create districts that are more fairly balanced. After trying to draw their own “fair” districts, students might be interested in some states’ use of independent groups to draw fairer district lines.

By using elections as a learning tool, students can gain a better understanding of ratios, means and range, and they might also start thinking about what they can do to improve the process.

READ ORIGINAL STORY HERE

What Is Temporary Protected Status? A Global Migration Expert Explains Why The US Offers Some Foreign Nationals Temporary Protection



BY KAREN JACOBSEN
HENRY J. LEIR CHAIR IN GLOBAL
MIGRATION, FLETCHER SCHOOL OF LAW
AND DIPLOMACY, TUFTS UNIVERSITY

Former President Donald Trump and his running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance, have criticized the Biden administration’s decision to allow Haitian nationals who are in the U.S. to apply for permission to stay under a legal classification called Temporary Protected Status. Here is what this designation means and how it’s made:

TPS permits foreign nationals who are already in the United States – even if they did not enter the country through an official or legal means – to remain for six, 12 or 18 months at a time if the situation in their home country is deemed too dangerous for them to return. Threats that prompt TPS designations include ongoing armed conflict, natural disasters, epidemics and other extraordinary and temporary conditions.

The Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security designates a foreign country for TPS when conditions there meet requirements spelled out in federal law. Once the secretary determines that the foreign country is safe for its nationals to return, their protected status expires and people who have been granted it are expected to return to their home country.

Congress created TPS as part of the Immigration Act of 1990. Since then, administrations have used it to protect thousands of people from dozens of countries. The first nations to be designated, in March 1991, were Kuwait, Lebanon and Liberia.

As of March 2024, there were 863,880 people from 16 countries under Temporary Protected Status in the U.S. Another 486,418 people had initial or renewal applications pending. An estimated 316,000 people may also be eligible under two new extensions since that date.

TPS beneficiaries may not be detained by federal officials over their immigration status or deported from the United States. They can obtain work permits and apply for authorization to travel outside the U.S. and return to it.

People who receive TPS don’t automatically become legal permanent residents. But they can petition for an adjustment of their immigration status, such as applying for permanent residency, a student visa or asylum. Applying for a change of immigration status does not necessarily mean their application will be approved.

Humanitarian measures

TPS is not the only tool administrations can use to protect people from countries facing disaster or conflict.

For example, a Haitian person currently living in the U.S. is eligible for TPS under a designation that lasts through Feb. 3, 2026. In contrast, a Haitian who travels through Mexico and applies for entry to the U.S. at the border is not likely to be admitted.

However, there is a third possibility for Haitians, known as parole. The federal government can give certain groups permission to enter or remain in the U.S. if it finds “urgent humanitarian or significant public benefit reasons” for doing so.

People who enter through parole programs must have an approved financial supporter in the U.S., undergo a robust security vetting and meet other eligibility criteria. They typically can stay for one to two years, and may apply for authorization to work.

One current parole program is for people from Latin American countries that are TPS designates. The U.S. government can grant advance permission to enter the U.S. to up to 30,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans each month. People fleeing these countries – all of which have been designated for Temporary Protected Status – can seek authorization to travel from their homes to the U.S. for urgent humanitarian reasons, and then stay for a temporary period of parole for up to two years.

I’ve studied global migration and asylum policy for 25 years. I see both TPS and parole as legal and carefully considered ways to support people from countries experiencing wrenching conflict, disorder and disaster who are seeking safety in the U.S. Doing away with these programs, as Trump sought to do during his term in office, would make it extremely difficult for people in great danger to escape.

Neither TPS nor parole programs are automatic roads to citizenship or permanent residence. They are ways to provide humanitarian assistance to people in appalling circumstances, such as rampant gang violence in Haiti and economic hardship and political repression in Venezuela and Nicaragua.

Certainly, cities need more resources to support large numbers of immigrants. But offering temporary protection to people whose home countries are not safe places to live is a long-standing – and, in my view, crucial – element of U.S. immigration policy.

READ ORIGINAL STORY HERE

Overseas US Voters Get Ignored By Political Campaigns − But Could Be Crucial Supporters



AUTHORS:

AMANDA KIEKOWSKI KOPPENFELS
HONORARY READER IN MIGRATION
AND POLITICS, UNIVERSITY OF KENT

JAMES A. MCCANN
PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE
PURDUE UNIVERSITY

RONALD RAPOPORT
PROFESSOR EMERITUS OF POLITICAL
SCIENCE, WILLIAM AND MARY
 
One group of American voters is being largely ignored in the closely watched polling leading up to the Nov. 5 elections: U.S. citizens living abroad, whether as civilians or as members of the military. We know from governmental data that the number of ballots cast by overseas Americans has been greater than the margin of victory in races in the past – and may be again in 2024.

But that one potentially crucial group of American voters – U.S. citizens living abroad – does not get much attention, from pollsters or campaigns.

We are scholars of political science whose research shows that overseas voters can make a difference in elections – and that there is potential for campaigns to mobilize these voters, despite a more complex process of voting than for domestic voters.

Who are overseas Americans?

Though there is not an exact count of American citizens living abroad, we do know they number in the millions. Estimates from the Federal Voter Assistance Program and the Association of Americans Resident Overseas placed this number between 4.4 million and 5.3 million in 2023.

But those are likely undercounts. It’s almost impossible to account fully for dual citizens, naturalized U.S. citizens who have returned to the country of their birth or people who split their time between the U.S. and other countries.

Research that we and others have conducted indicates that Mexico and Canada are home to the largest numbers of Americans outside the U.S., followed by the U.K., France, Israel and Germany. The three most common reasons Americans move abroad are family connections, employment and quality of life, although there are others.

Overseas Americans tend to be highly educated: More than three-quarters have a college degree, double the percentage within the U.S. Most overseas Americans do not move from country to country but rather stay in one country, often for a decade or more. But our surveys have found they remain interested in U.S. politics – not least because they pay U.S. income taxes, whether they work for a U.S. or foreign employer. IRS data shows that the vast majority are not ultra-wealthy.

Voting from abroad

Military members and U.S. citizens living abroad have had the right to vote in federal elections since 1976. This right was further consolidated in the 1986 Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act, while the right for Americans living abroad to vote in local and state elections depends on state law.

Some people have recently expressed concern that overseas voting could be used to cast fraudulent ballots, but there is no evidence of illegal voting by noncitizens abroad.

Overseas voters’ absentee ballot requests and their returned ballots are carefully scrutinized by local officials in the state where they last lived in the U.S., making abuse very unlikely. But it is complex for overseas voters to vote: The paperwork is complicated, and there is comparatively little outreach from political parties and candidates.

Barriers to voting from overseas

In 2020, the Federal Voting Assistance Program, which is supposed to help overseas voters exercise their voting rights, estimated that just shy of 8% of eligible American voters overseas cast ballots in that year’s presidential election. Using program numbers to calculate a percentage another way finds that no more than 20% of overseas Americans cast ballots in the 2020 election.

That’s far lower than the 67% national turnout rate that year.

Federal law requires local election officials in the U.S. to mail absentee ballots 45 days before an election to overseas Americans who request them. Poor mail service in the U.S. and elsewhere can mean that voters don’t always get the ballots in time, and the ballots mailed back to election officials face similar delays.

Some states allow voters to receive or return their ballots electronically, which is faster; an overseas voter casting a ballot in Massachusetts can request a ballot, receive a blank ballot and return it all by email, while an overseas voter from Pennsylvania must return it by mail or courier, following exact procedures for enclosing their ballot in multiple envelopes.

In 2023, the Federal Voting Assistance Program estimated that as many as 150,000 U.S. citizens overseas did not cast ballots in the 2022 elections because of administrative hurdles, such as slow or irregular mail service and difficulties in communicating procedural changes to prospective voters abroad.

Interest in US politics

Another possible reason Americans abroad don’t vote is that they have lost interest in U.S. politics. But our own research, and the work of others, finds that not to be true.

Even given the logistical challenges, U.S. citizens living in Canada, as one example, have very similar levels of interest in American politics compared with citizens back home.

During the 2020 and 2022 campaign seasons, two of us surveyed American citizens who had moved north of the border. In 2020, 55% indicated they were very interested in American politics, as did 44% in the midterm year of 2022. This is comparable with levels of attention to politics within the U.S. during those campaigns, as gauged by the Cooperative Election Study.

So although Americans in Canada indicated interest levels as high as those in the U.S. during the past two national election cycles, the vast majority of them did not cast a vote. Administrative barriers play a role, but they’re not enough to explain such low turnout among citizens overseas.

Ignored by campaigns

Another key factor driving low turnout from abroad is a lack of communication from campaigns and parties. Research demonstrates that contacts by campaigns and parties significantly increase a person’s likelihood of voting.

In the U.S., parties and campaign organizations can help streamline the voter registration process, reinforce the stakes of an election and bolster a sense of camaraderie among citizens.

U.S. citizens living abroad are unlikely to hear from campaigns, even in nearby Canada. When asked in 2020 or 2022 whether they had been contacted by American political campaigns, most potential voters in the U.S. had. But our surveys of Americans living in Canada show less than one-third reported contact from parties or candidates.

Because overseas citizens vote in their last state of residence in the U.S. but are not physically resident there, campaigns find it harder to identify them as swing-state residents or members of favorable demographic groups.

Overall, Americans living overseas are as eligible to vote as citizens in the U.S. They are as attentive to politics as Americans living in the U.S. On the other hand, they face major administrative hurdles and are generally not contacted by American parties or campaigns.

READ ORIGINAL STORY HERE

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

US Warns Israel To Boost Humanitarian Aid Into Gaza Or Risk Losing Weapons Funding

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks at a news conference during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Vientiane, Laos, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024. (Tang Chhin Sothy/Pool Photo via AP)

BY LOLITA C. BALDOR, TARA COPP AND MATTHEW LEE

WASHINGTON (AP)
— The Biden administration has warned Israel that it must increase the amount of humanitarian aid it is allowing into Gaza within the next 30 days or it could risk losing access to U.S. weapons funding.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned their Israeli counterparts in a letter dated Sunday that the changes must occur. The letter, which restates U.S. policy toward humanitarian aid and arms transfers, was sent amid deteriorating conditions in northern Gaza and an Israeli airstrike on a hospital tent site in central Gaza that killed at least four people and burned others.

A similar letter that Blinken sent to Israeli officials in April led to more humanitarian assistance getting to the Palestinian territory, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Tuesday. But that has not lasted.

“In fact, it’s fallen by over 50% from where it was at its peak,” Miller said at a briefing. Blinken and Austin “thought it was appropriate to make clear to the government of Israel that there are changes that they need to make again, to see that the level of assistance making it into Gaza comes back up from the very, very low levels that it is at today.”

For Israel to continue qualifying for foreign military financing, the level of aid getting into Gaza must increase to at least 350 trucks a day, Israel must institute additional humanitarian pauses and provide increased security for humanitarian sites, Austin and Blinken said in their letter. They said Israel had 30 days to respond to the requirements.

“The letter was not meant as a threat,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters. “The letter was simply meant to reiterate the sense of urgency we feel and the seriousness with which we feel it, about the need for an increase, a dramatic increase in humanitarian assistance.”

An Israeli official confirmed a letter had been delivered but did not discuss the contents. That official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a diplomatic matter, confirmed the U.S. had raised “humanitarian concerns” and was putting pressure on Israel to speed up the flow of aid into Gaza.

The letter, which an Axios reporter posted a copy of online, was sent during a period of growing frustration in the administration that despite repeated and increasingly vocal requests to scale back offensive operations against Hamas, Israel’s bombardment has led to unnecessary civilian deaths and risks plunging the region into a much wider war.

“We are particularly concerned that recent actions by the Israeli government, including halting commercial imports, denying or impeding 90 percent of humanitarian movements” and other restrictions have kept aid from flowing, Blinken and Austin said.

The Biden administration is increasing its calls for its ally and biggest recipient of U.S. military aid to ease the humanitarian crisis in Gaza while assuring that America’s support for Israel is unwavering just before the U.S. presidential election in three weeks.

Funding for Israel has long carried weight in U.S. politics, and Biden said this month that “no administration has helped Israel more than I have.”

Humanitarian aid groups fear that Israeli leaders may approve a plan to seal off humanitarian aid to northern Gaza in an attempt to starve out Hamas, which could trap hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are unwilling or unable to leave their homes without food, water, medicine and fuel.

U.N. humanitarian officials said last week that aid entering Gaza is at its lowest level in months. The three hospitals operating minimally in northern Gaza are facing “dire shortages” of fuel, trauma supplies, medications and blood, and while meals are being delivered each day, food is dwindling, U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said.

“There is barely any food left to distribute, and most bakeries will be forced to shut down again in just days without any additional fuel,” he said.

The U.N. humanitarian office reported that Israeli authorities facilitated just one of its 54 efforts to get to the north this month, Dujarric said. He said 85% of the requests were denied, with the rest impeded or canceled for logistical or security reasons.

COGAT, the Israeli body facilitating aid crossings into Gaza, denied that crossings to the north have been closed.

U.S. officials said the letter was sent to remind Israel of both its obligations under international humanitarian law and of the Biden administration’s legal obligation to ensure that the delivery of American humanitarian assistance should not be hindered, diverted or held up by a recipient of U.S. military aid.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas has killed over 42,000 people in Gaza, according to the territory’s Health Ministry. It does not differentiate between fighters and civilians but has said a little more than half the dead are women and children. The Hamas attacks killed some 1,200 people in Israel, mostly civilians, and militants abducted another 250.

The United States has spent a record of at least $17.9 billion on military aid to Israel since the war in Gaza began and led to escalating conflict around the Middle East, according to a report for Brown University’s Costs of War project.

That aid has enabled Israel to purchase billions of dollars worth of munitions it has used in its operations against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, many of those strikes also have killed civilians in both areas.

AP reporter Josef Federman in Jerusalem and Edith M. Lederer at the United Nations contributed

Socially Distanced Layout Of The World’s Oldest Cities Helped Early Civilization Evade Diseases

Modern excavations at what was once Çatalhöyük, where inhabitants lived in mud-brick houses that weren’t separated by paths or streets. Murat Özsoy 1958/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

BY R. ALEXANDER BENTLEY
PROFESSOR OF ANTHROPOLOGY
UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE

In my research focused on early farmers of Europe, I have often wondered about a curious pattern through time: Farmers lived in large dense villages, then dispersed for centuries, then later formed cities again, only to abandon those as well. Why?

Archaeologists often explain what we call urban collapse in terms of climate change, overpopulation, social pressures or some combination of these. Each likely has been true at different points in time.

But scientists have added a new hypothesis to the mix: disease. Living closely with animals led to zoonotic diseases that came to also infect humans. Outbreaks could have led dense settlements to be abandoned, at least until later generations found a way to organize their settlement layout to be more resilient to disease. In a new study, my colleagues and I analyzed the intriguing layouts of later settlements to see how they might have interacted with disease transmission.

Earliest cities: Dense with people and animals

Çatalhöyük, in present-day Turkey, is the world’s oldest farming village, from over 9,000 years ago. Many thousands of people lived in mud-brick houses jammed so tightly together that residents entered via a ladder through a trapdoor on the roof. They even buried selected ancestors underneath the house floor. Despite plenty of space out there on the Anatolian Plateau, people packed in closely.

For centuries, people at Çatalhöyük herded sheep and cattle, cultivated barley and made cheese. Evocative paintings of bulls, dancing figures and a volcanic eruption suggest their folk traditions. They kept their well-organized houses tidy, sweeping floors and maintaining storage bins near the kitchen, located under the trapdoor to allow oven smoke to escape. Keeping clean meant they even replastered their interior house walls several times a year.

These rich traditions ended by 6000 BCE, when Çatalhöyük was mysteriously abandoned. The population dispersed into smaller settlements out in the surrounding flood plain and beyond. Other large farming populations of the region had also dispersed, and nomadic livestock herding became more widespread. For those populations that persisted, the mud-brick houses were now separate, in contrast with the agglomerated houses of Çatalhöyük.

Was disease a factor in the abandonment of dense settlements by 6000 BCE?

At Çatalhöyük, archaeologists have found human bones intermingled with cattle bones in burials and refuse heaps. Crowding of people and animals likely bred zoonotic diseases at Çatalhöyük. Ancient DNA identifies tuberculosis from cattle in the region as far back as 8500 BCE and TB in human infant bones not long after. DNA in ancient human remains dates salmonella to as early as 4500 BCE. Assuming the contagiousness and virulence of Neolithic diseases increased through time, dense settlements such as Çatalhöyük may have reached a tipping point where the effects of disease outweighed the benefits of living closely together.

A new layout 2,000 years later

By about 4000 BCE, large urban populations had reappeared, at the mega-settlements of the ancient Trypillia culture, west of the Black Sea. Thousands of people lived at Trypillia mega-settlements such as Nebelivka and Maidanetske in what’s now Ukraine.

If disease was a factor in dispersal millennia before, how were these mega-settlements possible?

This time, the layout was different than at jam-packed Çatalhöyük: The hundreds of wooden, two-story houses were regularly spaced in concentric ovals. They were also clustered in pie-shaped neighborhoods, each with its own large assembly house. The pottery excavated in the neighborhood assembly houses has many different compositions, suggesting these pots were brought there by different families coming together to share food.

This layout suggests a theory. Whether the people of Nebelivka knew it or not, this lower-density, clustered layout could have helped prevent any disease outbreaks from consuming the entire settlement.

Archaeologist Simon Carrignon and I set out to test this possibility by adapting computer models from a previous epidemiology project that modeled how social-distancing behaviors affect the spread of pandemics. To study how a Trypillian settlement layout would disrupt disease spread, we teamed up with cultural evolution scholar Mike O’Brien and with the archaeologists of Nebelivka: John Chapman, Bisserka Gaydarska and Brian Buchanan.

Simulating socially distanced neighborhoods

To simulate disease spread at Nebelivka, we had to make a few assumptions. First, we assumed that early diseases were spread through foods, such as milk or meat. Second, we assumed people visited other houses within their neighborhood more often than those outside of it.

Would this neighborhood clustering be enough to suppress disease outbreaks? To test the effects of different possible rates of interaction, we ran millions of simulations, first on a network to represent clustered neighborhoods. We then ran the simulations again, this time on a virtual layout modeled after actual site plans, where houses in each neighborhood were given a higher chance of making contact with each other.

Based on our simulations, we found that if people visited other neighborhoods infrequently – like a fifth to a tenth as often as visiting other houses within their own neighborhood – then the clustering layout of houses at Nebelivka would have significantly reduced outbreaks of early foodborne diseases. This is reasonable given that each neighborhood had its own assembly house. Overall, the results show how the Trypillian layout could help early farmers live together in low-density urban populations, at a time when zoonotic diseases were increasing.

The residents of Nebilevka didn’t need to have consciously planned for their neighborhood layout to help their population survive. But they may well have, as human instinct is to avoid signs of contagious disease. Like at Çatalhöyük, residents kept their houses clean. And about two-thirds of the houses at Nebelivka were deliberately burned at different times. These intentional periodic burns may have been a pest extermination tactic.

New cities and innovations

Some of the early diseases eventually evolved to spread by means other than bad foods. Tuberculosis, for instance, became airborne at some point. When the bacterium that causes plague, Yersinia pestis, became adapted to fleas, it could be spread by rats, which would not care about neighborhood boundaries.

Were new disease vectors too much for these ancient cities? The mega-settlements of Trypillia were abandoned by 3000 BCE. As at Çatalhöyük thousands of years before, people dispersed into smaller settlements. Some geneticists speculate that Trypillia settlements were abandoned due to the origins of plague in the region, about 5,000 years ago.

The first cities in Mesopotamia developed around 3500 BCE, with others soon developing in Egypt, the Indus Valley and China. These cities of tens of thousands were filled with specialized craftspeople in distinct neighborhoods.

This time around, people in the city centers weren’t living cheek by jowl with cattle or sheep. Cities were the centers of regional trade. Food was imported into the city and stored in large grain silos like the one at the Hittite capital of Hattusa, which could hold enough cereal grain to feed 20,000 people for a year. Sanitation was helped by public water works, such as canals in Uruk or water wells and a large public bath at the Indus city of Mohenjo Daro.

These early cities, along with those in China, Africa and the Americas, were the foundations of civilization. Arguably, their form and function were shaped by millennia of diseases and human responses to them, all the way back to the world’s earliest farming villages.

READ ORIGINAL STORY HERE

Monday, October 14, 2024

“The Ritual” Tells The Story Of Inglewood Educator Tedric Johnson

Inglewood Educator Tedric Johnson (Los Angeles Standard)

BY JASON LEWIS

LOS ANGELES, CA (LOS ANGELES STANDARD)
-- The Spot SoDo Studios has produced a documentary on Inglewood educator Tedric Johnson, who taught Black and Latino boys at Morningside High School who many teachers did not want to deal with. Through the Schools with a Purpose program, Johnson took students who were considered trouble makers, and many of whom were in gangs, and turned them into positive and successful members of society.

“Mr. J took who California deemed as the worst,” said Dominic Banks, owner of The Spot SoDo Studios and a former student of Johnson’s. “I had given up on school. My mindset was more of a hustling mindset, and I didn’t care. The first day that I had walked in Mr. Johnson’s class, that brother gave me the ‘Autobiography of Malcolm X,’ and he told me to read this. I opened up that book and it changed my life. I turned from being the kid that didn’t care to one of the top students in his class. I made sure to be an example of his program to my other peers.”

“Mr. Johnson would call my house if I was not in his class,” said Los Angeles Fire Department Captain Robert Hawkins, who is also the president of the Los Angeles City Stentorians African American firefighters association and a former student of Johnson’s. “If I chose to ditch, he would know, and my mother would know. Because of Mr. Johnson’s influence, I didn’t want to get on his bad side. I looked up to him and respected him. I loved him like a fatherly figure. It meant everything in the world to me for him to be proud of me. He was my role model. He knew how to talk in business meeting but he also knew the gang culture. He knew the big homies from the neighborhood, and he squashed so many beefs in his class.”

Johnson was able to connect with the boys in his class because he had their same background. He went to school in Inglewood. He had a similar upbringing in the same neighborhoods as his students so he could connect with them in ways that other teachers could not.

“I knew the areas in which they came from,” Johnson said. “I could speak the jargon. I could relate to them. I was someone who they could connect with. I am them. I matriculated through the Inglewood schools. To see someone who came back to the community, who was once them, who went to college and graduated, participated in sports, that was something that gravitated them to me and I gravitated to them. They were able to see someone on a day to day basis who was able to go through the system within Inglewood and come back and be represented in a positive manner. As African American males, we see many people that we perceive as being role models, but they are not tangible. Athletes, entertainers, politicians. But how many times do you get to interact with that person on a day-to-day basis where they can provide them with quality time and mentoring?

“It was my job to make sure that these individuals were taught from a perspective that they could understand. It was culturally responsive teaching. To incorporate from an Afrocentric perspective. It was my job to tap into their greatness and instill confidence in them so that they could be successful.”

Johnson’s program was created by the Los Angeles County Office of Education in 1991 and it ran until 1997.

“The concept was that it was a school within a school model,” Johnson said. “The concept arose out of the need to help African American males matriculate through high school, middle school, and elementary. The reason why this came about was because the African American male population were being denied a quality education. They were suspended and expelled at a higher rate than any other ethnic group and gender. One of the main principles was to choose African American men to lead these classes. I was fortunate enough to be chosen.”

Johnson believed that it was not the Black males fault that they were not succeeding, but the system and individuals within the system who were not giving them a fair chance.

“Teachers were intimidated by some African American males,” Johnson said. “So any specific reason that they could give to eliminate them from the class — not having a pencil, coming late, not having homework — they used those excuses to get rid of them from their classes. So therefore, if they were not in class, it was difficult for them to learn and to matriculate through the system. If individuals are given the proper tools and the proper environment for success, they will succeed. Success must be presented to all individuals without obstacles.”

Johnson taught the core curriculum of English, math, science, and social studies. Through his class he saw that his students had great improvements in confidence, accountability, respect, and they were getting better grades. Johnson’s mentorship also steered his students away from gangs.

“Ultimately if some of them stayed on the track that they were on, that would lead to either incarceration or an untimely death,” Johnson said. “I preached that on a daily basis.”

Telling Johnson’s story was extremely important to Banks because Johnson changed his life and the lives of many others like him.

“This tells the story of a gentleman who came back to his community in spite of the various gang culture that was going on at that time,” Banks said. “It’s also important because of the teachers. A lot of times teachers are not looked upon or paid financially in the same stipend that we pay athletes or entertainers. We admire those people. But yet there wouldn’t be any athlete, entertainer, or politician, without a teacher. This is a story of the gentleman who enlightened a lot of us. As a society we’re failing our youth. We’re losing kids constantly. We have an influx of gangs and weapons. We need to go back to the core teaching when teachers cared. Teachers pretty much raise our kids. We send our kids to school for eight hours, and if the teacher isn’t right or is going through things, how can our kids listen?”

Many films about inner city Black life show a struggle throughout the story, but this documentary focuses on the change that these students made.

“We watched ‘Boyz N the Hood,’ ‘Menace II Society,’ and the various Black movies that always end the same way; with a mother crying and somebody dead,” Banks said. “Mr. Johnson’s story needed to be told because his program was successful and positive.”

The documentary features one of Johnson’s students who went on to become a scientist.

“That brother is an astrophysicist,” Banks said. “This was a brother that society had thrown away, that wasn’t going to make it. He meets Mr. Johnson, and Mr. Johnson puts him on the road to success. He gives him the confidence that he can be whatever he wants to be. As you see the movie, you will see how Mr. Johnson has touched people so that they can be successful in life and in their community.”

The environment that Johnson created inspired Hawkins to become a firefighter.

“I learned about the medical terms from his class,” Hawkins said. ‘Mandible,’ ‘phalanges,’ ‘occipital.’ He brought people to come and talk to us about opportunities.”

Johnson’s class instilled a confidence in Hawkins that he did not know that he had when he was put back in classes with the rest of the student body.

“When Mr. Johnson mainstreamed me, I still didn’t believe in myself,” Hawkins said. “It was my senior year, and he told me that I had to go. But I was getting on the honor roll for the first time. I trusted him, and when I was mainstreamed, it worked. That’s when I started believing in myself. I could do this on my own as a senior. I graduated early by having over credits by being in his class.”

The title of the film, “The Ritual” comes from rituals that Johnson had in his class. At the end of each class as each student left, Johnson would stand by the door and shake all of their hands. Johnson also used a ritual when his students broke rules.

“We had discipline in the class,” Hawkins said. “If you came late, or was ditching, you got your name on the board. We had this thing called ‘The Ritual.’ We went on the track and you ran miles and then we went into the weight room. You didn’t want your name on the board because that ritual hurt. But everyday we left his class we shook his hand.”

What Does Springfield, Illinois, In 1908 Tell Us About Springfield, Ohio, In 2024?

Ida B. Wells was among the NAACP’s founders. Library of Congress

BY JOSEPH PATRICK KELLY
PROFESSOR OF LITERATURE AND
DIRECTOR OF IRISH AND IRISH
AMERICAN STUDIES, COLLEGE OF
CHARLESTON

Lying about Black people is nothing new in political campaigning.

Despite the thorough debunking of false rumors that Haitian immigrants were eating cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio, former President Donald Trump and his GOP allies insist on repeating the lies.

“If I have to create stories,” admitted JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, “that’s what I’m going to do.”

While many political observers believe that these lies have, as The New York Times columnist Lydia Polgreen described, finally “crossed a truly unacceptable line,” in fact, white politicians have told brazen, fearmongering, racist lies about Black people for over the past 100 years.

One of the more notorious lies occurred in 1908 in another Springfield, this one in Illinois. As a historian who studies the impact of racism on democracy, it’s my belief that what happened there and in other cities helps to clarify what Trump and Vance are trying to do in Springfield, Ohio, today.

Lying when everyone knows you’re lying seems to be the point.

New target, old message

Springfield, Illinois, Abraham Lincoln’s home town, was, in 1908, a working-class city of just under 50,000 people – about the same size as its modern counterpart in Ohio.

Because of the city’s manufacturing industries, Springfield was also an attractive place to live and work for Black men and women escaping the social oppression of the Deep South.

The Black population of Springfield had been growing by about 4% annually, and by 1908, roughly 2,500 Black people were living there to work in the city’s manufacturing plants. As the wealth of some Black families rose, so too did racist fears among whites that Black migrants were taking their jobs.

Rumors spread through false newspaper reports among white residents that a Black man had raped a white woman.

As the story went, a Black man broke through the screen door of a modest house in a white neighborhood. He supposedly dragged a 21-year-old white woman by her throat into the backyard, where he raped her. Or so the woman said.

A couple of weeks after the incident, the woman admitted she lied. There was no Black man. There was no rape. But by then, telling the truth was too late. The rumor had triggered a wave of anti-Black violence.

William English Walling, a white, liberal journalist from Kentucky, reported that Springfield’s white folks launched “deadly assaults on every negro they could lay their hands on, to sack and plunder their houses and stores, and to burn and murder.”

For two days, the violence raged, while white “prosperous businessmen looked on” in complicit approval, Walling wrote. Several blocks in Black neighborhoods were burned, and at least eight Black men were killed.

One of the men killed was William K. Donnegan. The 84-year-old died after his white attackers slit his throat and then hanged him with a clothesline from a tree near his home.

As a dozen different rioters told Walling: “Why, the n—–s came to think they were as good as we are!”

Telling the truth about racist tropes

At the turn of the 19th century, racial tensions were most often expressed in sexual terms – Black men having sex with white women.

That sexual anxiety was part of what cultural historians call a “master narrative,” a symbolic story that dramatizes white nationalism and the belief that citizenship and its benefits were preserved for one racial group at the expense of all others.

One of the first to debunk this rape fantasy was Ida B. Wells, the Black editor and owner of the weekly “Memphis Free Press.”

In 1892, a white mob lynched one of her good friends, Thomas Moss, and two others associated with his cooperative Peoples’ Grocery store. The Appeal Avalanche, a white Memphis newspaper, wrote that the lynching “was done decently and in order.”

In her May 21, 1892, editorial about Moss’ death, Wells told a different story about “the same old racket – the new alarm about raping a white woman.”

Wells explained that she worried that people who lived outside of the Deep South might believe the lies about Black people.

“Nobody in this section of the country,” she wrote, not even the demagogues spreading rumors, “believe the old thread bare lie that Negro men rape white women.”

Political fearmongering

What happened in Wilmington, North Carolina, in 1898 was based on a deliberate, cynical election strategy of lies.

At the turn of the 20th century, North Carolina’s disaffected, poor working-class white Populists joined forces with Black Republicans to form what were known as the Fusionists.

In Wilmington, then the largest city in North Carolina, the Fusionists were able to vote out the white-nationalist Democratic Party in the early 1890s and became a symbol of hope for a democratic South and racial equality.

They also became a target for Democrats seeking to regain power and restore white nationalism.

The spark came in the summer of 1898 when Rebecca Felton, the wife of a Georgia congressman and a leading women’s rights advocate, gave an address to Georgia’s Agricultural Society on Aug. 11 that sought to protect the virtue of white women.

“If it needs lynching,” she said, “to protect a woman’s dearest possession from the ravening of beasts – then I say lynch; a thousand times a week if necessary.”

In response, Alexander Manly, the Black editor of The Daily Record, in Wilmington, followed the lead of Ida B. Wells and attacked the myths of Black men. Manly pointed out in his August 1898 editorial that poor white women “are not any more particular in the matter of clandestine meetings with colored men than are the white men with colored women.”

Democrats bent on stoking racial fears circulated Manly’s editorial throughout North Carolina before the November 1898 elections, decrying the “Outrageous Attack on White Women!” by “the scurrilous negro editor.”

If that wasn’t enough to stir up North Carolina Democrats, party officials sent the Red Shirts, their white nationalist militia, to Wilmington to overthrow the city’s biracial government, install all white officials and restore white rule.

To that end, a white mob destroyed Manly’s newspaper office, chased him and other Black leaders into exile, rampaged through Black neighborhoods and killed an untold number of Black men.

It was a white nationalist coup d’etat.

The great white protector

In his modern-day attempt to divide working-class white people from working-class Black people, Vance has urged his supporters to ignore “the crybabies” in the mainstream media.

“Keep the cat memes flowing!” he posted on X.

An estimated 67 million people watched the U.S. presidential debate on ABC and heard Trump angrily proclaim: “They’re eating the dogs. They’re eating the cats. They’re eating … the pets of the people that live there.”

Once again, the old narrative is resurrected.

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Nobel Economics Prize: How Colonial History Explains Why Strong Institutions Are Vital To A Country’s Prosperity – Expert Q&A



BY RENAUD FOUCARY
SENIOR LECTURER IN ECONOMICS,
LANCASTER UNIVERSITY MANAGEMENT 
SCHOOL, LANCASTER UNIVERSITY

This year’s Nobel memorial prize in economics has gone to Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and James Robinson of the University of Chicago for their work on why there are such vast differences in prosperity between nations.

While announcing the award, Jakob Svensson, the chairman of the economics prize committee, said: “Reducing the huge differences in income between countries is one of our times’ greatest challenges”. The economists’ “groundbreaking research” has given us a “much deeper understanding of the root causes of why countries fail or succeed.”

The award, which was established several decades after the original Nobel prizes in the 1960s, is technically known as the Sveriges Riksbank prize in economic sciences. The academics will share the award and its 11 million kroner (£810,000) cash prize.

To explain their work and why it matters, we talked to Renaud Foucart, a senior lecturer in economics at Lancaster University in the UK.

What did Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson win for?

The three academics won the prize mostly for providing causal evidence of the influence of the quality of a country’s institutions on its economic prosperity.

At first glance, this may seem like reinventing the wheel. Most people would agree that a country that enforces property rights, limits corruption, and protects both the rule of law and the balance of power, will also be more successful at encouraging its citizens to create wealth, and be better at redistributing it.

But anyone following the news in Turkey, Hungary, the US or even the UK, will be aware that not everyone agrees. In Hungary for instance, cases of corruption, nepotism, a lack of media pluralism, and threats to the independence of the judiciary have led to a fierce battle with the European Union.

Rich countries typically have strong institutions. But several (wannabe) leaders are perfectly comfortable with weakening the rule of law. They do not seem to see institutions as the cause of their prosperity, just as something that happens to be correlated.

In their view, why does the quality of institutions vary across countries?

Their work starts with something that has clearly not had a direct effect on today’s economic prosperity: living conditions at the start of European colonialism in the 14th century. Their hypothesis is that, the richer and the more inhospitable to outsiders a place was, the more colonial powers were interested in brutally stealing the country’s riches.

In that case, they built institutions without any regard for the people living there. This led to low quality institutions during the colonial period, that continued through independence and led to bad economic conditions today.

All of this is because – and this is another domain to which this year’s laureates contributed – institutions create the conditions of their own persistence.

In contrast, in more hospitable and less developed places, colonialists did not take resources. They instead settled and tried to create wealth. So, it was in their (selfish) interest to build democratic institutions that benefited people living there.

The researchers then tested their hypothesis by looking at historical data. First, they found a “great reversal” of fortune. Places that were the most urbanised and densely populated in 1500 became the poorest by 1995. Second, they found that places where settlers died quickly from disease and could therefore not stay – while local populations were mostly immune – are also poorer today.

Looking at the colonial roots of institutions is an attempt to disentangle causes and consequences. It is also perhaps the main reason why the committee would say that even if this year’s laureates did not invent the idea that institutions matter, their contribution is worthy of the highest distinction.
Some have suggested the work simply argues ‘democracy means economic growth’. Is this true?

Not in a vacuum. For instance, their work does not tell us that imposing democracy from scratch on a country with otherwise malfunctioning institutions will work. There is no reason for a democratic leader not to become corrupt.

Institutions are a package. And this is why it is so important to preserve their different aspects today. Weakening even a little bit of the protections the state offers to citizens, workers, entrepreneurs and investors may then lead to a vicious circle where people do not feel safe that they will be defended against corruption or expropriation. And this leads to lower prosperity and more calls for authoritarian rules.

There may also be outliers. China is clearly trying to push the idea that capitalism without a liberal democracy can be compatible with economic success.

The growth of China since Deng Xiaoping’s reforms in the 1980s coincides with the introduction of stronger property rights for entrepreneurs and businesses. And, in that sense, it is a textbook version of the power of institutions.

But it is also true that Deng Xiaoping ordered the crushing by the military of the Tiananmen Square protests for democracy in 1989. China today also has a clearly more authoritarian system than western democracies.

And China is still much poorer than its democratic counterparts, despite being the world’s second-largest economy. China’s GDP per capita is not even a fifth of that of the US, and it is facing major economic challenges of its own.

Actually, according to Acemoglu, Xi Jinping’s increasingly authoritarian regime is the reason why China’s economy is “rotting from the head”.

What trajectory are democratic institutions throughout the world currently on?

Acemoglu has expressed concern that democratic institutions in the US and Europe are losing support from the population. And, indeed, many democracies do seem to be doubting the importance of protecting their institutions.

They flirt with giving more power to demagogues who claim it is possible to be successful without a strong set of rules that bind the hands of the rulers. I doubt today’s prize will have the slightest influence on them.

But if there is one message to take home from the work of this year’s laureates, it is that voters should be cautious not to throw the baby of economic prosperity with the bathwater of the sometimes frustrating rules that sustain it.

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