Political Tension In West Africa Puts Vital Climate Action At Risk

BY KEBBA JEFFANG

A wave of military coups in West Africa is reshaping political landscapes and jeopardising a unified response to climate change.

In January, relations within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) broke down to the point where the junta-led nations of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger announced they were leaving the regional bloc.

While they are yet to formally do so, the juntas’ trio of chiefs said in July they were “irrevocably” turning their backs on ECOWAS. In September, plans were announced for a new passport to make travel easier between the three countries.

ECOWAS is still hoping to negotiate their return, saying a split would risk regional disintegration and worsen security. It would also pose a serious threat to the bloc’s climate strategy. West Africa is already experiencing severe climate change impacts, including food insecurity and heatwaves.

One of the worst affected areas is the Sahel. Situated along the Sahara Desert’s southern border, the Sahel comprises six Francophone countries – Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal – and is home to more than 100 million people.

How is climate change affecting the Sahel?

Temperatures in the Sahel are rising 1.5 times faster than in the rest of the world and droughts are becoming more intense, according to a report by Solidarités International, a non-profit humanitarian agency. Climate change has also brought heavier rains. But with the land too dry to absorb the rainwater, there have been destructive river floods in Mali and Niger.

By 2050, climate change could plunge up to 13.5 million people in the Sahel into poverty and lead to the displacement of up to 32 million across West Africa, according to the World Bank.

Noudéhouénou Gandonou is a US-based climate finance and fragility expert who has researched climate impacts in the Sahel. He says changing rainfall patterns have led smallholder farmers relying on rainfed agriculture to change planting dates, diversify crops and plant drought-resistant varieties.

“However, these adaptations are not enough to counter the escalating severity and frequency of droughts, which have affected approximately 125 million people in the Sahel from 1970 to 2022 alone,” Gandonou tells Dialogue Earth. “The increasing unpredictability and severity of these conditions threaten the region’s livelihoods and food security, exacerbating existing socio-economic vulnerabilities.”

Conflict and climate change in the Sahel

Since 2020, West Africa (home to over 400 million people across 16 countries) has witnessed at least six successful military takeovers and numerous foiled attempts, plunging the region into political insecurity.

The Sahel region has been described as the “epicentre of terrorism”, and in 2022 accounted for 43% of global terrorism deaths. Since the 2000s, more than 2.5 million people have been displaced there, increasing the need for humanitarian interventions. This shift in priorities has made climate adaptation even more difficult.

“Because of climate change, land and water resources have become scarce, and as a result, people fight over these limited resources. That leads to insecurity and general instability,” says the Gambian political and security analyst, Essa Njie.

Njie adds: “Once these challenges are present, we risk having organised crime, competition over scarce resources, violent conflict and terrorist infiltration.”

The future of the bloc’s climate strategy

In 2022, ECOWAS agreed its first ever Regional Climate Strategy (RCS) to fulfil member countries’ obligations under the Paris Agreement.

The bloc’s representatives tell Dialogue Earth that the political instability will severely undermine the solidarity and coordination needed to implement this strategy successfully.

“Climate change is global, but actions are local. The [RCS] is a testament to this,” says a spokesperson for the office of the ECOWAS president, Omar Touray. “National actors, including public actors, civil society and the private sector become the key drivers of implementation. At political level, climate action will be pushed to the back burner, as the struggle for unity and survival of the community is paramount.

“Political instability will surely impact the scope of implementation of our climate strategy. For instance, the transboundary areas and water basins that need regional adaptation actions will not be easily accessible.”

ECOWAS has also made it clear that any country leaving the bloc will lose access to its projects. “The Regional Climate Centre may face some restrictions [in providing] forecast data and information to these Member States,” the spokesperson adds. “Consequently, they may not benefit from some of the best available practices and environmental technologies developed by the other countries and vice versa. This will create vulnerability when it comes to the climate security of the region as a whole.

“In addition, the capacity of the region to capture carbon emissions will be reduced,” the spokesperson says. “We are stronger together.”

Fatou Jeng, a climate change activist and founder of Clean Earth Gambia, says the political instability could shift priorities from climate adaptation to the military, stalling progress and diverting funds from climate projects.

“With some leaders not recognising the authority of ECOWAS, it also means them not accepting and endorsing the strategy, which will significantly impact coordinated responses to climate projects and actions,” she adds.

The ECOWAS strategy “includes low-cost adaptation measures in key sectors such as agriculture and water resources, supported by coordinated actions among governments, the private sector and global climate funds”, Gandonou tells Dialogue Earth.

Belélé Jérôme William Bationo, a climate change researcher from Burkina Faso, says his country lacks the means to implement policies and programmes itself. It would struggle to finance them, and lacks technical capacity, he says.

Maïmouna Adamou, an activist and coordinator of Climate Clock in Benin (another ECOWAS state) stresses that peace and collaboration are essential in the fight against climate change, and fears for the region’s climate response.

“The split within ECOWAS could make matters worse, as coups d’état disrupt environmental policies and projects,” she says. “Climate projects can be delayed or cancelled, harming both governments and populations.”

Charting a way forward

ECOWAS is still hoping to rebuild relationships with Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger; sanctions aimed at restoring democratic rule in the nations have been lifted.

“Lifting those sanctions is meant to mitigate the situation and ensure that actions are taken by the commission to support its member states to fight climate change challenges under the implementation of the RCS,” its spokesperson says.

In May, the Africa Policy Research Institute published a report on climate change adaptation policies and strategies regarding Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal. It stressed the need for capacity building and knowledge sharing among West African countries to address the climate crisis.

“I firmly believe that collaboration and peace are essential in the fight against climate change,” says Maïmouna. “It is the reason we need ECOWAS to act as one force.”

READ ORIGINAL STORY HERE

US Leads Training Exercises In Africa Amid Focus On Sahel

In this Tuesday Feb. 18, 2020, photo, Nigerian Navy Special Boat Service troops exercise under the supervision of British special forces during U.S. military-led annual counterterrorism exercise in Thies, Senegal. More than 1,500 service members from the armies of 34 African and partner training nations have assembled for the Flintlock exercises in Senegal and Mauritania, the two countries in West Africa's sprawling Sahel region that so far have not been hit by violence from extremists linked to al-Qaida or the Islamic State group. (AP Photo/Cheikh A.T Sy)

CARLEY PETESCH

THIES, SENEGAL (AP) — Crouching in the sparse brush, maneuvering into formations through a divide, and then shooting at a target, about 10 soldiers from Burkina Faso are among a select group of African soldiers being trained to battle West Africa’s fast-growing extremist threat.

They are carrying out drills as part of the U.S. military-led annual counterterrorism exercise in West Africa, which this year takes place in the shadow of possible U.S. troop cuts in Africa although extremist attacks in the region have reached a worrying new level.

A Pentagon decision on the size of the U.S. force in Africa is pending as part of a global review with the aim of better countering Russia and China.

More than 1,500 service members from the armies of 34 African and partner training nations have assembled for the Flintlock exercises in Senegal and Mauritania, the two countries in West Africa’s sprawling Sahel region that so far have not been hit by violence from extremists linked to al-Qaida or the Islamic State group.

The U.S. Africa Command, which organizes the two weeks of training, defers questions about the possible troop cuts to the Pentagon. It has said European nations should step up to help France’s 5,000-strong force leading the counterterror fight in the Sahel, the region just below the Sahara Desert. French leaders have appealed to Washington to keep U.S. troops in place.

Senegalese Foreign Minister Amadou Ba during a visit this week by U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made it clear the region is under threat.

“We hope they will continue to support in security areas. We hope they will continue to support us in training and intelligence,” he said of U.S. forces.

Extremists know no boundaries, Col. Magatte Ndiaye, a spokesman for Senegal’s armed forces, told The Associated Press. “We must have a synergy of international action to face this threat,” he said.

“We have trust in the Americans,” he added. “They are aware of the situation and I’m sure they’ll take a decision that makes good sense.”

Security in the Sahel region continues to deteriorate and requires international participation, said the commander of Special Operations Command Africa, U.S. Air Force Brig. Gen. Dagvin Anderson. “It’s not just a U.S. or Western effort. It takes partnerships across the international community, and it takes close partnership within the region in order to be effective,” he said.

Extremists don’t respect borders, so intelligence sharing is vital, he said. That involves building trust and relationships across borders: “Ultimately, that’s what leads to stability, and that stability is what we need.”

But a five-nation regional counterterrorism force, the G5 Sahel, has suffered from insufficient funding.

In Burkina Faso, which has seen a growing number of attacks as extremists move over the border from Mali and Niger, the military has been accused by human rights groups of abuses in counterterror efforts that risk alienating young people and sending them to join the extremists.

Burkina Faso’s military needs more training to fight against growing extremism, said Lt. David Ouedraogo, who leads the group of Burkinabe soldiers training as special forces. His forces will be deployed to hold the line against the extremists’ expansion southward toward the capital.

“We must always adapt and continue training,” he said as his team ran drills led by the Dutch. “The threat has changed ... the attacks on positions, the attacks on military camps and on civilians. This is all a threat that has grown against our country.”

Once-peaceful Burkina Faso has seen a rising number of attacks since Islamic extremists became active in the country in 2015. Hundreds have been killed and more than a half-million people displaced in the past year alone.

“There’s less freedom to move ... and it all affects the morale” of residents, he said. “It’s important ... to find stability.”

Capt. Sam Okenarhe of Nigeria’s Brigade Strike Force faces a more entrenched threat from Boko Haram, whose insurgency has lasted more than a decade, and an offshoot called the Islamic State West Africa Province.

“We all know that terrorism is not something that our country faces alone, so definitely it’s very important that our Western partners have an intervention in it,” he said as his force received training from the U.K.’s Royal Marines.

There are signs, though, that U.S. military interest in the Sahel could be waning. Late last year the U.S. switched to a strategy of merely trying to contain extremist groups in the region instead of weakening them, according to a new report by the Pentagon inspector general.

However, the U.S. ambassador to Mauritania, Michael J. Dodman, countered the idea that the U.S. is pulling out.

“We have absolutely not abandoned the fight against terrorism in West Africa or in the Sahel, or frankly, anywhere in the world,” he said last week in a phone press conference.

“We continue to modify what we’re doing” said Dodman. “We try to stay on top of the situation and try to build up the capacities of the countries in the region, who are the ones who are really going to be the key to defeating the threat that comes from extremists.”

Nigeria Economic Maturity by 2030: NIC Economic Postulation and Reality

AFRIPOL TUESDAY, JANUARY 8, 2013

The United States based global economic and political intelligent agency, National Intelligence Council (NIC) recently had a radiant prediction on Nigeria’s economic prospects by 2030. According to NIC report, Nigeria and many other developing economies including Colombia, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey will play a vital role in the global economy by the 2030 and beyond. 

The report also made an already unfolding reality that China will overtake United States economy while Asia will become powerhouse of the global economy. In case of China and Asia, all the economic indicators are pointing to the inevitability of their economic supremacy. Even further, China military power accelerates with increasing military strength due to rising spending in its military industrial complex. 

 

This is how NIC report put it: 

 

"In addition to China, India, and Brazil, regional players such as Colombia, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa and Turkey will become especially important to the global economy. The diffusion of power among countries will have a dramatic impact by 2030. Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based upon GDP, population size, military spending, and technological investment.

China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030. Meanwhile, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia are likely to continue their slow relative declines."

 

But when it comes to Nigeria the affirmative economic prospect may be there but the road map and the given reality are clouded and foggy. Therefore many Nigerians including economic stakeholders and policy makers are receiving the good news with grain of salt. The point here to make is that Nigeria has everything it takes to emerge as a true regional economic power house with global influence. But in reality Nigeria may not have the discipline and will power to actualize the prospect. This does not imply that it is not doable but it is logical to comprehend that the pathway is loaded with difficulty and complex problems.

 

This is why Nigerians including Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala are cautiously optimistic.  Nigerians and interested parties should listen to Okonjo-Iweala on Nigeria’s economic prospect. She believes in Nigeria and she is bullish on Nigeria but she is saying that Nigeria is not yet on the pathway to the promise land.  Her words, "We are of course happy at such a forecast and we need to work harder as a nation to ensure we get there."

 

Nigeria has the potential to make the forecast a reality but the path to a powerful and sustainable economy is paved with discipline, hard work and unreliability. It is doable but it will take a lot of hard work. Nothing good comes easy and such a tall order beckons a serious industry and order. 

 

Ugochukwu Okoroafor, CBN Director of Communications said that Nigerian receive of the news from NIC was filled with pessimism.  Okoroafor said: "I think Nigerians don't take themselves as serious as the rest of the work sees us. We all need to come together and see what we have here and work. The world sees us as a major power; I think that we don't fully appreciate the power that we have and what is taking place in the rest of the world and how Nigeria is in position to take full advantage of this; others seem to see it but we don't."

 

With all due deference to Hon.Okoroafor,  I think Nigerians have every reason to be cautious even cynical. Nigerians point of references and history taught them to be careful not to wholly consume the news no matter how tempting or sweet it maybe.

 

Nigeria has in past lunched many programs including “Operation Feed the Nation” and “Green Revolution, but they all failed. Even the recent 2020 vision program is floundering and many international institutions including IMF has predicted that Nigeria will not make to one of the twenty largest economies by 2020.

 

But in spite of our history, I will cast my lot with Okonjo-Iweala, Nigerians must work harder, come together, set achievable priorities, then kick the ball to the net. Therefore Nigerians cannot afford to be cynical despite our history; we cannot afford to curse “the darkness but light a candle,” as ancient Chinese saying goes.  

 

The strategies for realization of NIC forecast must be clearly formulated and diligently implemented. The key to herculean economic growth and its sustainability are rooted on political economy stability. The problem of instability that comes through Boko Haram, Kidnappings, pirates menace and criminality   must be uttermost priority of the federal government. The most important duty of a government is the protection life and property. Economic prosperity cannot thrive in absence of peace and stability. 

 

Education plays a vital and significant role in economic development and advancement. Nigeria needs well trained and healthy workers to able to compete on the international scale. Nigeria must reverse brain drain and attract back many qualified Nigerians who are living abroad.

 

Nigeria must diversify her economy to have arrays of products other than oil to generate foreign exchange and strengthen naira with a quantifiable war chest from currency speculators. It must be noted that the economy of 21st century cannot be built solely on oil and natural resources but on human capital and complex problem solving intelligence that are grounded on high-technology training and superior education.

 

Then comes the most important which is the provision of social and physical infrastructures. A well-built roads, railways with effective delineated traffic rules and regulations. Steady provision of electricity and running water make the wheel of industrial production and output possible and sustainable. Nigeria can surely make it to a powerful economy not with words and big mouth but with action and hard work.

 

Emeka Chiakwelu, Principal Policy Strategist at Afripol. Africa Political & Economic Strategic Center (AFRIPOL) is foremost a public policy center whose fundamental objective is to broaden the parameters of public policy debates in Africa. To advocate, promote and encourage free enterprise, democracy, sustainable green environment, human rights, conflict resolutions, transparency and probity in Africa. 

www.afripol.org   info@afripol.org

Ifeanyi Ubah’s Capital Oil and AMCON: Renegotiate and Restructure Debt

Oil business be it distribution, trading or exploration is capital intensive that requires enhanced technical know-how and optimal efficiency in management.  Without tactical and strategic planning and implementation, it becomes quite easy to go into debts. The problem of debts that was accumulated by Ifeanyi Ubah and its Capital Oil is an indicative of a management lapses that can be corrected when the parties involved sit down, sort things out and work together.  With company’s reform, pragmatic orientation and sound management the financial climate will improve. But before that debt re-negotiation and restructure are the ways forward for Capital Oil and Asset Management Corporation (AMCON).

It has been in the news for a while the struggle between CEO of Capital Oil, Ifeanyi Ubah and Nigeria’s Asset Management Corporation (AMCON) as it endeavored to forcefully squeeze out its debt from Capital Oil. The Asset Management Corporation (AMCON) was setup by Nigerian government to buy back bad loans from the previously collapsed banks and to rejuvenate struggling banks with infusion of new capital. AMCON was also empowered with the responsibility of getting those defaulted companies that took out the loans from the insolvent banks to pay back their debts.

The problem here is that as AMCON moves in one direction, Capital oil was moving in the opposite direction. With its clout the government run entity has flexed its muscle andi Ubah has been temporarily arrested and was later released.  But that has not produced the money that Ubah’s indebted Capital Oil Company owned. Therefore it is appearing that AMCON effort is not yielding any reasonable and tangible results. Therefore AMCON should be open to a brand new and credible alternative.

AMCON would have embarked on peaceful resolution with Capital Oil instead of restoring to bullying tactics and public humiliation. After all, Capital Oil is not the only company that has outstanding debts with the banks. AMCON  could have  achieve more by leveraging the instrumentality of its financial capacity and capability to negotiate with Capital Oil by sitting down with  Ubah’s Capital Oil and devise ways to settle the debt. The stipulated option would have ally and orient their perspectives and bring into sink of a common purpose and affirmative result.

It was reported in the news that an Abuja Federal High Court has ruled for AMCON to withdraw from the occupation of Capital Oil facility but AMCON declined, preferably waiting on Federal Appeal Court to give its own ruling. According to Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria, Mr. Mustafa Chike-obi:

"The judge made a surprising ruling which we have either appealed or we are going to appeal. He basically said we should go and talk to the guy (Ifeanyi Uba) and we have been talking to him for two years. He owes us for two years - N53 billion and interest has accumulated to N12 billion - and he hasn’t paid us a kobo and so I don’t know how much talk the judge wants us to do."

This is an enormous debt and AMCON should exercise its prerogative to get the taxpayers money back but  Ubah’s vision and prospect for Capital Oil must be respected, for he built the company and was able to guide it successfully before the problems began to manifest in the deleverage of debts. It is impossible to run a big business without accumulation of the debts but the key point is to manage the debt successfully with limited risk by  not given it the room to overrun the business entity. This implies that both parties should set out for productive talks that will be supervised by the court. Occupying the company facility and premise will not bring out the money in question but a comprehensive and fundamental negotiation rooted on court proceeding and backing can be more productive.

The poor climate of debt management in Nigeria’s economy is not peculiar to Capital Oil but has permeated the country’s economic and financial landscape. Even the government of Nigeria was having a problem in managing its debts until Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stepped in and reorganizes the country’s financial sheet. Therefore it is reasonable and logical to create a pathway for country’s business entities to be enlightened on how to manage their debts through the filing and utilization of bankruptcy rules and regulations. The rules of debt management for companies have not be fully elucidated, elaborated and appreciated by ministries of Justice and Finance. The Nigerian government has not been a capable hand in the protection of public shareholders a when such problems of debt, liquidity and bankruptcy arises.

The closing down and locking the gates of Capital Oil will not do the trick for AMCON.  To continue with that is a illogical decision without any positive ramification. When door is closed that means that regular people that worked for Capital Oil will lose their jobs. And with the problem of high unemployment in Nigeria, the last thing government can do is to encourage and contribute to the status quo.

The key here is not to allow companies and business executives not to pay back their loans but to find ways by fabricating pathways that will enable such companies to restructure its assets by going through bankruptcy rules and regulations.  Take America for example, when companies become highly indebted they can file for bankruptcy which is called “Bankruptcy Chapter 13’:

“Chapter 13 of the United States Bankruptcy Code, codified under Title 11 of the United States Code, governs a form of bankruptcy in the United States that allows individuals to undergo a financial reorganization supervised by a federal bankruptcy court. The goal of Chapter 13 is to enable income-receiving debtors debtor rehabilitation provided they fulfill a court-approved plan. This is in contrast to the goals of Chapter 7, which offers immediate and complete relief of many oppressive debts. It is a form of debt consolidation.”(Wikipedia)

Even AMCON is having problem with its balance sheet, Bloomberg news reported that: The Asset Management Corp. of Nigeria, set up by the West African nation to buy bad debts from banks, said it spent 5.6 trillion naira ($35.5 billion) in last year to acquire non-performing loans. Amcon, as the company is known, bought loans worth 4 trillion naira “with the acquisition costs at more than twice the initial estimates” accounting for the remaining expenditure, Chief Executive OfficerMustafa Chike-Obi told reporters today in Lagos, the commercial capital. It made a net loss of 2.43 trillion naira, while total assets amounted to 3.34 trillion naira.” 

The point here is to come into an understanding with the parties that AMCON is working to extract the defaulted loans. It is doable by working with them legalistically and creating a strategic pathway for long term collection of the payment on the bad debts via negotiation by using the instruments of bankruptcy and other financial tools as leverage.  Even the assets of the corporation can be swapped by negotiation not by making public scene.  AMCON in this case can be allocated some shares in the corporation with time duration under the supervision of a court.  AMCON should subscribe to a more civilized and enlightened methodology of collecting debt payment rather than resort to street fight with debtors.

Emeka Chiakwelu, Principal Policy Strategist at Afripol. Africa Political & Economic Strategic Center (AFRIPOL) is foremost a public policy center whose fundamental objective is to broaden the parameters of public policy debates in Africa. To advocate, promote and encourage free enterprise, democracy, sustainable green environment, human rights, conflict resolutions, transparency and probity in Africa. 

Nigerian Jungle Blues: Ghetto Life Images II

What a life!


Na real wah! A nation that boasts of abundant natural resources and human capital.


Makes Compton and South Central Los Angeles look like heaven. Of course, Compton and South Central LA is heaven compared to anywhere in Naija.


Who cares? That's what it's all about.


Apparently it all means the world is a ghetto. Scenes from Aba Township. Images courtesy of KEVIN ANI/NSIBIDI PRESS


"Day of Hell in Lagos after downpour": From Ogba to Ikeja, Oshodi to Mile Two, Festac, Apapa, CMS, the story was the same. For those going to Tin-Can and Apapa, it was hell. Commuters who were able to board commercial buses could not get to their destinations eventually as most of them had to disembark on the way to begin the homeward journey early enough. According to them, it was no use continuing the journey since it was obvious they might not get to their offices before close of work time. VANGUARD


Erosion-ridden Anambra, Courtesy of Wazobaa


Abatete: Improper dumping of refuse in Anambra state has heightened the impact of erosion. Photo by Hilary Uguru/IRIN


Around Onitsha Market. Image courtesy of AFRIPOL