Zelensky Leaves Washington With Trump’s Security Guarantees, But Are They Enough?

European leaders flanking Zelensky and Trump at the White House. Aaron Schwartz/Consolidated News Photos Pool/EPA

BY SONIA MYCAK

RESEARCH FELLW IN UKRANIAN

STUDIES, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL

UNIVERSITY

The last time Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the White House earlier this year, he was berated by Donald Trump.

On Monday, he returned with European leaders by his side. He emerged with some signs of progress on a peace deal to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The presence of the European leaders no doubt had a great impact on the meeting. After Trump’s recent summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, they were concerned he was aligning the United States with the Russian position by supporting Putin’s maximalist demands.

We see from Trump’s statements over the last couple of months, the only pullback from his erratic pronouncements, largely based on Russian disinformation, seems to come when a body politic around him brings him back to a more realistic and informed position. So, this show of European unity was very important.

Security guarantees remain vital

There was considerable progress on one critical part of the negotiations: security guarantees for Ukraine.

It is significant that the US is to be involved in future security guarantees. It was not that long ago Trump was placing all the responsibility on Europe. So, this signals a positive development.

I listened to the briefing Zelensky gave outside the White House in Ukrainian for Ukrainian journalists. He explained it will take time to sort out the details of any future arrangement, as many countries would be involved in Ukraine’s future security guarantees, each with different capabilities to assist. Some would help Ukraine finance their security needs, others could provide military assistance.

Zelensky also emphasised that funding and assistance for the Ukrainian military will be a part of any future security arrangement. This would involve strategic partnerships in development and production, as well as procurement.

Zelensky made a point of this at a news conference in Brussels prior to Monday’s meeting. It is a priority for Ukraine to have a military strong enough to defend itself from future Russian attacks.

Reports also indicate the security guarantees would involve Ukraine buying around US$90 billion (A$138 billion) of US military equipment through its European allies. Zelensky also suggested the possibility of the US buying Ukrainian-made drones in the future.

According to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, there was also discussion about an Article 5-type security guarantee for Ukraine, referring to the part of the NATO treaty that enshrines the principle of collective defence for all members.

However, contrary to popular belief, NATO’s Article 5 does not actually commit members of the alliance to full military intervention if any one member is attacked. It allows NATO states to decide what type of support, if any, to provide. This would not be enough for Ukraine.

Ukraine has already seen the result of a failed security arrangement. In the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia guaranteed to respect Ukraine’s borders and territorial integrity in exchange for Ukraine giving up the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world.

However, look what happened. Russia invaded in 2014 without any serious consequences, and then launched a full-scale invasion in 2022.

Given this, any future security guarantee for Ukraine will need to be rigorous. Ukrainians are very cognisant of this.

Loss of Ukrainian territory

Prior to his Alaska summit with Trump, I would have said Putin is not interested in any kind of deal. We saw how in previous meetings in Istanbul, Russia sent low-level delegations, not authorised to make any decisions at all.

However, I think the scenario has changed because, unfortunately, in Alaska, Trump aligned himself with Putin in supporting Russia’s maximalist demands. It’s highly likely Putin now believes he has an advocate for those demands in the White House.

This could mean Putin now perceives there is a realistic chance Russia could secure Donbas, the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

I don’t believe Ukraine would ever agree to any formal or legal recognition of a Russian annexation of Crimea or any of the other four regions that Russia now partly occupies – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

Zelensky has been adamant Ukraine would not cede territory to Russia in any peace deal. And he alone cannot make such a decision. Changing any borders would need a referendum and a change to the constitution. This would not be easy to do. For one thing, it’s a very unpopular move. And Ukrainians living in Russian-occupied territory would not be given a free and fair vote.

Putin’s war against Ukraine is an attempt at illegally appropriating very valuable land. In Alaska, he demanded Russia essentially be gifted the entire regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, including land not currently occupied by the Russian military.

This land has extensive Ukrainian military fortifications. Giving up this territory would leave Ukraine completely exposed to future Russian invasions – the country would effectively have no military protection along its eastern border regions. This would put Russia in a very advantageous position in future plans to regroup and attack again.

Even if Zelensky felt compelled to agree to some kind of temporary occupation and a frozen conflict along the current front lines, I don’t believe Ukraine could give up any land still under Ukrainian control.

In a recent Gallup poll, 69% of Ukrainians favoured a negotiated settlement to the war as soon as possible. In my view, this reflects the fact the United States, under the Trump administration, is proving to be an unreliable partner.

A settlement that rewards Russia for its genocidal war against Ukraine would set a very dangerous precedent, not only for the future of Ukraine but for Europe and the rest of the world.

At recent negotiations between the two sides in Istanbul, the head of the Russian delegation reportedly said “Russia is prepared to fight forever”.

That has not changed, no matter what niceties have occurred between Trump and Putin. They are prepared to continue to fight.

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Europe, US Urged To Investigate The Type Of AI That Powers Systems Like ChatGPT

FILE - The ChatGPT app is seen on an iPhone in New York, Thursday, May 18, 2023. Authorities worldwide are racing to rein in artificial intelligence, including in the European Union, where groundbreaking legislation is set to pass a key hurdle. European Parliament lawmakers are due to vote Wednesday, June 14 on the proposal, along with controversial facial recognition amendments. (AP Photo/Richard Drew, file)

LONDON (AP) — European Union consumer protection groups urged regulators on Tuesday to investigate the type of artificial intelligence underpinning systems like ChatGPT, citing risks that leave people vulnerable and the delay before the bloc’s groundbreaking AI regulations take effect.

In a coordinated effort, 13 watchdog groups wrote to their national consumer, data protection, competition and product safety authorities warning them about a range of concerns around generative artificial intelligence.

A transatlantic coalition of consumer groups also wrote to U.S. President Joe Biden asking him to take action to protect consumers from possible harms caused by generative AI.

Europe has led the world in efforts to regulate artificial intelligence, which gained urgency with the rise of a new breed of artificial intelligence that gives AI chatbots like ChatGPT the power to generate text, images, video and audio that resemble human work.

The EU is putting the finishing touches on the world’s first set of comprehensive rules for the technology, but they are not expected to take effect for two years.

The groups called for European and U.S. leaders to use both existing laws and bring in new legislation to address the harms that generative AI can cause.

They cited a report by the Norwegian Consumer Council outlining dangers that AI chatbots pose, including providing incorrect medical information, manipulating people, making up news articles and illegally using vast amounts of personal data scraped off the internet.

The consumer groups, in countries including Italy, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, Greece and Denmark, warn that while the EU’s AI Act addresses some of the concerns, they won’t start applying for several years, “leaving consumers unprotected from a technology which is insufficiently regulated in the meantime, and developing at great pace.”

Some authorities have already acted. Italy’s privacy watchdog ordered ChatGPT maker OpenAI to temporarily stop processing user’s personal information while it investigated a possible data breach. France, Spain and Canada also have been looking into OpenAI and ChatGPT.

New EU Military Missions In West Africa To Counter Russia

EU OBSERVER

EU Foreign Affairs Chief Josep Borrell Fontelles. Image: Twitter

BY ANDREW RETTMAN

The EU is aiming to launch three new military missions in West Africa after Russia pushed Europe out of the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali and threatens to do so in Burkina Faso.

The new missions ought to be in Burkina Faso, one of the Gulf of Guinea states, and in Niger according to a "strategic review" paper by the EU foreign service dated 25 May and seen by EU Observer.

The Niger mission is the first to go ahead after Nigerien authorities requested an EU "logistic and maintenance centre of excellence in the vicinity of Niamey", it said.

But the EU is keen "to go beyond this initial request to also cover a 'train, equip and accompany' package for specific units or even a full-scale military operation to accompany Nigerien armed forces to combat".

Burkinabe armed forces "during discussions at technical level" asked the EU for a similar package, the EU foreign service said.

But Burkina Faso is playing a double game, because it also sent a high-level military delegation to Mali in mid-April and the EU suspects it discussed using Russian mercenaries to fight jihadists the same way Mali has done.

"The possibility of a replication of the Malian model [in Burkina Faso] and the use of Russia-affiliated forces cannot be ruled out," the EU foreign service warned.

The Gulf of Guinea project is in its infancy.

But the EU foreign service spoke of creating "a limited military footprint in one identified coastal state" that would host EU military trainers who could carry out "bespoke" missions in the region.

The EU military expansion comes after Russia pushed out French-led European forces from CAR last year and then Mali this year in what is increasingly looking like an African front in Russia's geopolitical clash with the West.

The EU also hopes to create its own rapid reaction force by 2025 designed to fight in places such as the Sahel in what French president Emmanuel Macron has championed as Europe's "strategic autonomy".

The new EU force must be ready to go into combat to defend Europe's interests, the EU foreign service paper said.

EU countries must "accept the risks associated with closer accompaniment of partner forces closer to the combat zone", it said.

But for all Macron and the EU foreign service's talk, Russian president Vladimir Putin's push into Françafrique risks making the EU ambitions appear like too little too late.

The EU folded its CAR mission in December 2021 after Kremlin-linked mercenaries from the Wagner group took command of EU-trained soldiers there and committed atrocities.

It also suspended its Mali military and civilian training missions in May after Mali brought in Wagner mercenaries to fight jihadists.
Reputation damage

The EU pull-back was due "to prevent any reputational risk due to Malian defence and security forces trained by the EU falling under the control or engaging along of Russia-affiliated forces, as it had been observed in the centre of the country", the EU foreign service said.

The EU had funded new military camps in Konna, Tominian, Timissa, Sayed, and Korientze in central Mali and trained soldiers and gendarmes there in the past two years, the EU paper noted.

But "the units (both National Guard and National Gendarmerie) in these posts, which were trained by EUCAP Sahel Mali [the EU mission] prior to their deployment, are now under military command and are integrated in joint operations with Russia-affiliated forces," the EU paper noted.

"It is also assessed that Russia-affiliated forces are gradually more present and influential at the strategic level" in Malian military circles, the EU warned.

And now Malian soldiers "together with Russia-affiliated forces" were "terrorising the population with punitive raids, targeting the Fulani community in particular", the EU said.

"Reports of violence on civilians have reached unprecedented levels," it said. "It is evident that Russia-affiliated forces' presence alongside the MAF [Malian Armed Forces] coincides with serious and systematic human rights violations".

The few EU military and civilian trainers who are staying on in Mali will do so to maintain some contact with Malian military commanders and keep an eye on Russian deployments.

"It is assessed that about 1,000 Russia-affiliated personnel, mostly relying on Malian equipment, are deployed in Mali, with a notable presence in Sévaré, Ségou, Niono, Timbuktu and Gossi in MAF camps," the EU foreign service said.

"Air Base 101, in Bamako, is used as a logistical hub for their deployment," it added.

Wagner's presence was accompanied by a disinformation campaign which aimed at "deflecting attention from Russia-affiliated forces' atrocities against civilians" and contained anti-French "pan-Africanist" ideology, it noted.

And all that was taking place amid potentially lucrative Malian mineral reserves as well as dire poverty and insecurity for ordinary people — 6 million of whom needed food aid in a country where one in five schools are closed.
Not enough

Looking back to CAR, the country has become so closely tied to Russia that it now teaches Russian in its schools and offered Putin to send fighters to Ukraine.

But if the Russian leader wanted to fully replicate his CAR success in Mali, he might have to commit more resources than at present, the EU foreign service said.

Jihadist attacks against Malian camps in March and April showed that "around 1,000 Russia-affiliated forces along with the MAF are not enough to clear and hold the centre of the country", the EU paper noted.

"The sustainability of the Russian support to Mali in the current global environment is also questionable," the EU added, referring to Putin's military losses on his primary battlefield — in Ukraine.

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