After Delays, Nigerians Keep Watch For Key Vote’s Outcome

Party agents and supporters of presidential candidate Peter Obi of the Labour Party cheer as their candidate wins the count at a polling station near to the home of ruling party presidential candidate Bola Tinubu, in Lagos, Nigeria Saturday, Feb. 25, 2023. Voters in Africa's most populous nation are heading to the polls Saturday to choose a new president, following the second and final term of incumbent Muhammadu Buhari. (AP Photo/Ben Curtis)

BY CHINEDU ASADU

ABUJA, NIGERIA (AP) — Some frustrated Nigerians cast their ballots with flashlights while others stood watch at their polling stations as counting got under way late Saturday amid fears of vote tampering after a day of delays in Africa’s most populous nation.

Election officials blamed the delays on logistical issues, though other observers pointed to the upheaval created by a redesigned currency that has left many unable to obtain bank notes. The cash shortage affected transport not only for voters but also election workers and police officers providing security.

Voting ended well beyond schedule in many places after delays but some were still voting in a few areas where the exercise stretched into the night. In the northwest Bauchi state, Lagos-based Channels TV reported that voters were still voting using their torchlights at around 9 p.m.

And in Abuja and Delta state, voters stuck around to monitor the process and ensure the results were not tampered with.

“Nightfall has come — anything can happen (now),” Torke Ezekiel said after casting his ballot.


While there were fears of violence on Election Day, from Islamic militants in the north to separatists in the south voting was largely peaceful Saturday though a dramatic scene unfolded in the megacity of Lagos in the mid-afternoon.

Associated Press journalists saw armed men pull up to the voting station in a minibus, fire shots in the air and snatch the presidential ballot box. The shots sent voters screaming and scattering for cover, and ballots strewn across the floor.

And in the northeast state of Borno, at least five people including children, were wounded when Boko Haram extremists attacked voters in Gwoza town, local authorities said.

Mahmood Yakubu, head of Nigeria’s election commission, said national collation of results in the presidential election would commence at noon on Sunday. In 2019, the winner of the presidential election was announced four days after the voting day.

“We are making very steady progress and we will continue to ensure that nothing truncates our democracy or truncates the will of the Nigerian people,” said Yakubu, the election chief.

However, Mucahid Durmaz, senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, a global risk intelligence company, said voting “has been very complicated for Nigerians.”

There have been “widespread complaints about late-arriving officials, nonfunctioning machines, low presence of security and attacks on polling stations,” he added.

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari is stepping down after two four-year terms in Nigeria, a West African country where unemployment has soared to 33% even as one of the continent’s top oil producers.

Out of the field of 18 presidential candidates, three front-runners emerged in recent weeks: the candidate from Buhari’s ruling party, the main opposition party candidate and a third-party challenger who has drawn strong support from younger voters.

But it remained unclear how many voters were deterred because of the cash crisis, which has left Nigerians with funds in their bank accounts unable to obtain the cash they need for things like gas and taxis.

“Voters said the new naira policy made it very difficult for people to transport themselves to their polling units and they were also hungry. So they felt rather than going out to burn energy, they should just stay back home,” said Anthony Adejuwon who monitored the election in Osun state.

The vote is being carefully watched as Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy. By 2050, the U.N. estimates that Nigeria will tie with the United States as the third most populous nation in the world after India and China.

It is also home to one of the largest youth populations in the world with a median age of only 18. About 64 million of its 210 million people are between the ages of 18 and 35.

Favour Ben, 29, who owns a food business in the capital, Abuja, said she was backing third-party candidate Peter Obi.

“Obi knows what Nigerians need,” she said. “He knows what is actually disturbing us and I believe he knows how to tackle it.”

Buhari’s tenure was marked by concerns about his ailing health and frequent trips abroad for medical treatment. Two of the top candidates are in their 70s and both have been in Nigerian politics since 1999.

By contrast, at 61, Obi of the Labour party is the youngest of the front-runners and had surged in the polls in the weeks leading up to Saturday’s vote.

Still, Bola Tinubu has the strong support of the ruling All Progressives Congress party as an important backer of the incumbent president. And Atiku Abubakar has the name recognition of being one of Nigeria’s richest businessmen, having also served as a vice president and presidential hopeful in 2019 for his Peoples Democratic Party.

For the first time this year Nigeria’s election results will be transmitted electronically to headquarters in Abuja, a step officials say will reduce voter fraud. Officials also say they’ll be enforcing a ban on mobile phones inside voting booths to prevent vote-buying: images of the votes are usually sent as proof if people have received money to pick a certain candidate.

Since officials in November announced the decision to redesign Nigeria’s currency, the naira, new bills have been slow to circulate. At the same time, older bank notes stopped being accepted, creating a shortage in a country where many use cash for daily transactions.

Durmaz says the currency change should have been laid out in a longer timeline before or after the election. Lengthy waits to vote “will likely disenfranchise voters, deepen the electoral disputes and trigger violence.”

“Delays along with reports of voter suppression in Lagos risk aggravating the disappointment among passionate voters in a highly-anticipated election and cause an explosion of violent protests in urban centers,” he warned. “Any outbreak of violence could rapidly embrace ethnic and religious undertones, given the considerable impact of ethnic and religious differences on elections in Nigeria.”

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Associated Press journalists Grace Ekpu in Lagos, Nigeria; Yesica Fisch in Yola, Nigeria; Haruna Umar in Maiduguri, Nigeria; Dan Ikpoyi in Agulu, Nigeria; Hilary Uguru in Asaba, Nigeria; Krista Larson in Dakar, Senegal, and Sam Mednick in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso contributed to this report.

Is Peter Obi Nigeria’s Saviour Or A Western Delusion?

 

Peter Obi. Image via Youtube

BY ALEKS EROR

Africa’s most populous nation goes to the polls on Saturday (25 February) to elect a new president. One candidate, Peter Obi, who appears to have become the front runner, has captured the imagination of the western media.

Obi, 61, the leader of the Nigerian Labour Party, has pitched himself as a fresh-faced progressive and outsider who will clean up the muck of Nigerian politics and build a fairer, more just nation. The country’s youth – a powerful voting bloc in a country where around two-thirds of the population of 213 million is under the age of 30 – appear to be on Obi’s side and, if you read election coverage in the international press, you might get the impression that Nigeria is on the verge of a bright new era. But is Obi really Nigeria’s saviour, or is this simply a media mirage?

The challenges facing Nigeria’s next president are immense. Security has deteriorated drastically over the last few years, the country is in the midst of a cash crisis caused by a disastrous attempt to replace old naira bills with redesigned ones, inflation is soaring, and corruption is so widespread that the state barely functions. For many Nigerians, things can barely get worse and Obi – who is running against two well-established and well-funded candidates in their seventies – is promising to deliver prudence and accountability to a failing political system.

It feels like we’ve been here before. From Syriza in Greece to Barack Obama via Aung San Suu Kyi in Myanmar, recent history is full of examples of fawning journalists turning progressive political leaders and movements into deities that inevitably fail to live up to the hopes projected onto them.

Syriza came to power on an anti-austerity platform and then promptly proceeded to ignore the results of the 2015 Greek bailout referendum and accepted an austerity programme imposed by the EU and International Monetary Fund. Far from delivering hope, Obama’s underwhelming presidency laid the ground for the profound cynicism of Donald Trump’s administration. Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, refused to acknowledge the genocide of Rohingya Muslims in her country.

This trend is often far more pronounced in the developing world, which is largely ignored in between election cycles by the international media. Nigeria has profound and complicated political fault lines. Analysis of these divides is rare until election time and even then global audiences receive little more than a superficial overview.

Passing readers demand a narrative that is easy to comprehend and basic information on who to back so that they can feel invested in the race. And nothing is more engaging than an underdog story about a candidate who preaches western values, like Peter Obi. Often this turns flawed politicians into messianic revolutionaries who are arguably set up for failure. No wonder faith in journalists and politicians is so low when both are so guilty of overinflating the expectations of the public.

Recent coverage of Obi is evidence of this. He is presented as an anti-establishment outsider coming up against the two dominant forces in Nigerian politics, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). This picture doesn’t fit the reality. Obi has been involved in politics for nearly 20 years. He was the PDP’s vice-presidential candidate at the last election in 2019, running alongside Atiku Abubakar, a former vice-president, who, now 76, is once again the party’s nominee.

Like Atiku, Obi has been accused of corruption. His financial affairs were reported in the 2021 Pandora Papers leaks and Obi has admitted to owning several shell companies based in offshore tax havens and maintaining foreign bank accounts while holding political office, both of which violate anti-corruption laws in Nigeria.

Obi, who was governor of Anambra state in south-east Nigeria between 2006 and 2014, has publicly defended the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB), a secessionist group that is officially listed as a terrorist organisation by the Nigerian government (though the UK has not listed the group as such). Nigerian officials say that IPOB bombings have killed dozens of civilians in the south-east, though the organisation denies involvement.

Security was also a significant blight on Obi’s period of governor. The local unit of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) – a notorious branch of the Nigerian police that was dissolved in 2020 for engaging in widespread criminality – in the Anambra town of Awkuzu became known for detaining civilians on bogus charges, torturing and often murdering detainees. An Amnesty International report singled out Awkuzu SARS as one of the most brutal after it dumped the bodies of 35 victims in the Ezu river. Though the report was published after Obi left office, in an election where security is the number one issue, there is little in the politician’s track record to suggest that he is equipped to make the country safer. Or, for that matter, resolve any of the deep-rooted dysfunctions that plague the Nigerian state. His intentions may be genuine, but his ability to deliver on his promises is unclear.

A common criticism of the media is that it only reports bad news, but unrealistic optimism can also undermine faith in journalism. Because when the great new hope eventually fails to deliver the change that voters expect, people become even more jaded. Fatalism then sets in and the electorate grows ever more contemptuous of politicians. It would be uniquely troubling if this were to happen to Nigeria, because, with a median age of just 18 years, it is one of the world’s youngest nations and one of the fastest growing – by 2050, Nigeria is projected to overtake the US to become the third most-populous country after India and China.

If a “youthquake” does bring Obi to power on Saturday, we should all hope that he’s capable of living up to the glowing coverage that he has received from western journalists. If Nigerian readers do succumb to this hype and he fails to deliver on his promise, Africa’s largest democracy risks sinking into disillusion for generations to come. If it does, be certain that there are plenty of malign forces in Nigeria ready to exploit that.

READ ORIGINAL STORY HERE

ANPP: Buhari, IBB Negotiate Ume-Ezeoke's Replacement

 SENATE PRESIDENT STILL FAVORED

 From The Archives
By Ike Abonyi
This Day, January 29, 2007

In a masterstroke aimed at seeing him through at the April 21 presidential poll, former Head of State and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) presidential flag-bearer, Major General Muham-madu Buhari (rtd), has concluded extensive consultations with various stakeholders that may lead to dropping his running mate and party national chairman, Chief Edwin Ume-Ezeoke.

THISDAY gathered that even with the weekend denial by the Senate President Ken Nnamani that he was not running with Buhari, there are moves to persuade him to contest with the ANPP candidate.

This move, according to sources, is being spearheaded by former military President, General Ibrahim Babangida, said to be collaborating with Buhari in the new arrangement.

Nnamani, sources confirm, continues to appear in the equation based on "the calculation that he is the most respected politician from the South –East in the current dispensation."

It was also gathered that Buhari has resisted pressure from the South-South that he should pick from the zone to counter the PDP choice of Governor Goodluck Jon-athan of Bayelsa State.

According to an official of the Buhari Campaign organisation, the ANPP candidate "has also left the position of running mate for Babangida to fill, believing that such will really commit him to the project since he has visibly been sidelined by the ruling PDP."

Aside Babangida, Buhari is also known to have consulted widely across the country and is said to have been getting some encouraging support from the people.

Other names featuring in the list for Buhari if Nnamani project with Babangida fails include chief Mike Ahamba (SAN) and former Governor Abia State, Dr. Ogbonaya Onu.

THISDAY checks reveal that ANPP had from the outset gave the Independent National Electoral commission (INEC) indication of a possible change of their running mate as the choice of the national Chairman was merely a stop-gap measure.

The Electoral Act 2006 allows such change so long as it occurs before the mandatory date of February 13, the last day for such changes.

THISDAY learnt that Buhari emergence as the flag bearer of the ANPP in December enjoyed the support of most northern politicians.

Babangida was said to have played a prominent role in convincing top candidates like Governor of Zamfara, Ahmed Sani Yarima, his Yobe counterpart, Bukar Ibrahim and former defunct National Republican Convention (NRC) Presidential candidate, Alhaji  Bashir Tofa to step down for Buhari who has a better chance at the presidential election.

Babangida Aliyu And 2015 Presidency

Niger State governor, Dr. Babangida Aliyu, last week perhaps confirmed the speculations of pundits that he is indeed interested in the presidency come 2015.

Aliyu, leader of the Northern Governors’ Forum last week in what could be summed as the justification behind his ambition declared that President Goodluck Jonathan reached an agreement in 2011 with Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) leaders and governors to serve only one term as president.

This declaration was made last week Saturday during a live radio programme, Guest of the Week, on Liberty Radio (91.7), Kaduna, has already ignited the race towards the 2015 presidential poll, as the governor had now become one of those to watch.

Aliyu during the media chat said the rumoured interest of Jonathan in seeking a second term in 2015 should be taken as a mere speculation.

His word: “I recall that at the time he was going to declare for the 2011 election, all the PDP governors were brought together to ensure that we were all in the same frame of mind.
“And I recall that some of us said given the circumstances of the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua and given the PDP zoning arrangement, it was expected that the North was to produce the president for a given number of years.

“I recall that at that discussion, it was agreed that Jonathan would serve only one term of four years and we all signed the agreement.

Even when Jonathan went to Kampala, in Uganda, he also said he was going to serve a single term. “For now, President Jonathan has not declared a second term ambition and we must not be speculating based on those who are benefiting from the campaign.

“I think we are all gentlemen enough so when the time comes, we will all come together and see what is the right thing to do.” Meanwhile, the presidency has denied Aliyu’s comments that PDP governors signed an agreement with President Goodluck Jonathan prior to the 2011 presidential elections that he would only run for a single term.

Special Adviser to the President on Political Matters, Dr. Ahmed Gulak, who made the presidency’s position known in Abuja stated that Jonathan did not sign any agreement with anyone and advised the governor who is rumoured to be nursing a presidential ambition to go about his pursuit without making what he called “frivolous allegations” against the President.

He said, “President Goodluck Jonathan did not win the presidential election in Governor Aliyu’s state, Niger. Anybody who has a presidential ambition, it is such a person’s constitutional right to have ambition.

Aliyu’s comments came at a time there were speculations that the party was planning to foist the candidacy of Jonathan on the party and make him the sole candidate of the PDP for the 2015 poll. In that case, the party would skip primary election for that office.
It has been alleged that the party’s top hierarchy of the party had agreed to amend its constitution to accommodate the new thinking. But denying the speculation, the party’s national publicity secretary, Mr Olisa Metuh, said there is no truth in the account.
He said: “I can tell you that under the constitution of this party, and the way we run our programmes, we are going to have primaries in 2015. We are completely unaware of any move to change the constitution of the party.

“The constitution that we have, which was passed at the last national convention, provides that we must have state and national convention.” Metuh, however, maintained that party could amend its constitution if it wanted to do so.

According to him, “A constitution can be amended at any time if the members decide to do so, or when the need arises.

I’m just telling you what the law is at the moment. Even the constitution of the country is being amended; the constitution of the party can be amended if they (party leaders) decide to.”

It will however be recalled that in July 2011,President Jonathan indicated that he would be sending a bill to the National Assembly to elongate the tenure of office of the President and Governors from the present four years.

As against the fouryear term elected officers currently enjoy, the bill would propose a single term of six years for the President and Governors. It was also stated that President Jonathan’s tenure would not be affected as the amendment would only take effect from 2015

According to a statement issued by the President’s Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, the proposed bill “is borne out of a patriotic zeal, after a painstaking study and belief that the constitutionally guaranteed two terms for Presidents and Governors is not helping the focus of governance and institutionalization of democracy at this stage of our development.”
It was also contained in the statement that the President is “concerned about the acrimony which the issue of re-election every four years generates both at Federal and state levels.”
It will also be recalled that discordant tunes trailed Jonathan’s proposal of a sixyear single term as many suspected the president had hidden agenda.

Former governor of old Kaduna state, Alhaji Balarabe Musa at the wake of the proposal said if accepted, the proposal could alter the 2015 elections. “If his proposal is accepted, you will be surprised that before 2015, he will declare another intention to declare for 2015 Presidency.

If the PDP could not accept the zoning system, they would definitely not accept excluding Jonathan in 2015. “So, what will happen is that just like he did in 2011, he will do in 2015. He has not demonstrated any confidence that he will complete his current tenure and he is already talking about 2015.

This government is controlled by money powers. “He could want to use money to achieve his agenda but Nigerians should ensure he doesn’t bastardise our constitution and Nigeria’s politics. He has already bribed the governors and the National Assembly by saying they too should benefit and that tells you he has a hidden agenda.”

In his own view, the governorship candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) in Niger State during the last general election, governorship candidate in Niger State, Bawa Bwari, said the problem with the six year- single tenure has to do with elongation, and not the concept.

“It’s the elongation there that is the problem. What do you want me to say? For any responsible government, there are so many issues that should be a priority.

This issue of single term tenure is a distraction. If it’s for patriotic reasons, it will be good but there is a question mark for first term governors.

Secondly, Nigerians don’t trust Jonathan because of what happened with zoning. People will not believe he is doing it for patriotic reasons.” Aliyu overtime, according to analysts been seen a predictable voice among the Northern governors against the second term ambition of Jonathan.

In May last year, The 19 northern governors including Aliyu defended the Presidential candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change, in the last poll Major- General Muhammadu Buhari, on the latter’ s comment on Jonathan’s administration.

Buhari’s party had described the Jonathan administration as the “most corrupt ever,” in response to the Presidency and the Peoples Democratic Party’s attacks on his person over a comment in which the retired General threatened bloodshed in 2015 if the government dared rig the elections.

The northern governors said Buhari’s comment was in order, observing some other Nigerians had made worse comments. Aliyu, during a question-and-answer session with journalists after the Forum’s meeting in Kaduna, noted that Buhari had only sought to keep the Federal Government on its toes in order to ensure a freeand- fair election in 2015.
He noted that Buhari’s statement was subject to different interpretation and cautioned eminent Nigerians against further inflammatory statements that could heat up the polity.
He said, “In a democratic system every individual has his ways and there are many of us whose ways of communication are quite different from others. Give the same statement to somebody, he may have used a different vocabulary.

“Again, certain facts are understood, that if this happens that would happen, I think it is a natural thing to do. Maybe those who may be too concerned have not looked at what other eminent Nigerians have been talking about.

“I saw one that said Nigeria is going to be Somalianised. I saw another one who has been talking like there would be war tomorrow. That statement should be taken on its own value.
“All of us who are involved in elections political parties, contestants and voters themselves – we must all be careful so that there would be a semblance of good in whatever we do.

But, again, like I said, certain people are so much in that position, they should be careful with certain vocabularies they use. So, both ways let’s take it on our own strides and ensure that future elections are seemed to be transparent and are seemed to be good.”

Aliyu’s outburst makes him the second governor being viewed as eyeing the presidency after his Jigawa State counterpart, Sule Lamido, who is said to have been nominated by former President Olusegun Obasanjo.

The former President, it was gathered had also tipped Governor Rotimi Amaechi as Lamido’s running mate.

It will however be recalled that last month, Aliyu said that he had not declared for the 2015 presidency and also dismissed the purported commencement of his presidential campaign as untrue.

He made the clarification in Minna when he received the Ethiopian Ambassador in Nigeria, Mr Ali Abdul Sulaiman, and the new Vice Chancellor of the Federal University of Technology, Minna, Prof. Musibau Akanbi.

He disclosed that the PDP at the national level had barred aspirants from all campaigns for the 2015 general elections till 2014, adding that he was complying with the directive as a loyal party member and law abiding citizen.

He explained that it was the National Youth Leader of the party, Alhaji Garba Umaru, who incidentally was from Niger, who led a delegation to Plateau to thank the PDP members in that state for voting for him during the national convention of the party.

“This has now been misconstrued as a presidential campaign flag off by me,’’ the governor said. At that time, Aliyu, said his clarification of the situation was not an indication that he was afraid to contest for the presidency when the time comes.

“If it is God’s will that I would come out, believe me I am not afraid I will come out because what will be will be but I am not out yet.’’

2015: APGA , 20 political parties in Alliance

20 political parties under the aegis of The Patriotic Alliance of Nigeria PAN, an association of opposition political parties yesterday adopted the All Progressive Grand Alliance ahead of the 2015 general election.

Addressing newsmen after a closed door meeting in Lagos yesterday PAN spokesman and the National Chairman of the Action Alliance Dr. Dele Jadi said that the group choose APGA because of its transparency and clear cut political ideology.

“APGA has a clear cut ideology on issues that will facilitate National development , hence the decision to adopt the party as a platform for the 2015 election,” Jadi said.

PAN a group comprising of 20 registered political parties also added that the platform will be an all inclusive alliance in the forth coming election.

he noted that the parties are not going into a merger but an alliance using APGA to present a single candidate for the presidential election.

The meeting which have in attendance representative of the political parties including Accord Party, Citizen Popular Party CPP, African Democratic Congress ADC, New Nigeria Peoples Party NNPP, Advance Congress of Democrat (ACD),United Democratic Party UDP, Allied Congress Party of Nigeria ACPN, Mega Progressive Peoples Party MPPP among others also express its readiness to support the new interim chairman Barrister Maxi Oku on the onerous task of repositioning APGA for the election.

Responding to newsmen after the meeting, APGA Interim national Chairman assured that the APGA will not disappoint Nigerians.

He said the only credible platform which the Nigerian masses can identify , stressing the party leadership appreciate the opportunity to use the party for the huge alliance.

He however said that despite the current challenges facing the party, the party leadership has set up a committee to woo backed aggrieved members of the party.

He said he will continue to foster the unity in which PAN is known for in the new alliance, stressing that selfish political interest has been the bane of political alliance in Nigeria.
He said APGA is not involve in the new All Progressive Congress APC merger.

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